WASHINGTON, MAY 20: US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages, while warning of further attacks unless Iran agrees to a deal.
Six weeks since Trump paused Operation Epic Fury for a ceasefire, talks to end the war have shown little progress so far. Trump has said this week he came close to ordering more attacks, but held off to allow more time for negotiations.
“We’re in the final stages of Iran. We’ll see what happens. Either have a deal or we’re going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won’t happen,” he told reporters on Wednesday.
“We’re going to give this one shot. I’m in no hurry,” Trump said. “Ideally I’d like to see few people killed, as opposed to a lot. We can do it either way.”
Tehran, for its part, accused Trump of plotting to restart the war, and threatened to retaliate for any strikes with attacks beyond the Middle East.
“If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will extend beyond the region this time,” Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator at peace talks, said in an audio message released on social media that “obvious and hidden moves by the enemy” showed the Americans were preparing new attacks.
Pakistani minister in Tehran in latest diplomatic push
In the latest diplomatic push, the interior minister of Pakistan – which hosted the only round of peace talks so far and has since been the conduit for messages between the sides – was in Tehran on Wednesday.
Iran submitted a new offer to the United States this week. Tehran’s descriptions of the proposal suggest it largely repeats terms previously rejected by Trump, including demands for control of the Strait of Hormuz, compensation for war damage, lifting of sanctions, release of frozen assets and the withdrawal of US troops from the area.
Trump has said he called off attacks this week at the last minute in response to requests from several of Iran’s Gulf neighbors. On Tuesday he said he had been an hour away from ordering strikes.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan welcomed what he said was a decision by Trump to allow more time for diplomacy.
Chinese tankers cross strait
Iran has largely shut the Strait of Hormuz to all ships apart from its own since the US-Israeli campaign began in February, causing the biggest disruption to global energy supplies in history. The United States responded last month with its own blockade of Iran’s ports.
Iran says its aim is to reopen the strait to friendly countries that abide by its terms to use it. That could potentially include fees for access, which Washington says would be unacceptable.
Two giant Chinese tankers laden with a total of around 4 million barrels of oil exited the strait on Wednesday. Iran had announced last week, while Trump was in Beijing for a summit, that it had reached agreement to ease rules for Chinese ships.
South Korea’s foreign minister said on Wednesday a Korean tanker was crossing the strait in cooperation with Iran.
Shipping monitor Lloyd’s List said at least 54 ships had transited the strait last week, around double the number from the week before. Iran said 26 ships had crossed in the past 24 hours, still only a fraction of the 140 or so each day that typically crossed before the war.
Pressure to end war
Trump is under pressure to end the war, with soaring energy prices hurting his Republican Party ahead of congressional elections in November. Since the ceasefire, his public comments have veered from threats to restart bombing to declarations that a peace deal was at hand, sometimes in the same breath.
The fluctuating US stances have sent oil prices bouncing from hour to hour and day to day, though on a clear upward trend week by week. Benchmark one-month Brent crude futures eased about 2.75 percent on Wednesday morning to near $108 a barrel.
“Investors are keen to gauge whether Washington and Tehran can actually find common ground and reach a peace agreement, with the US stance shifting daily,” said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities.
The US-Israeli bombing killed thousands of people in Iran before it was suspended in a ceasefire in early April. Israel has also killed thousands more and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it invaded in pursuit of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. Iranian strikes on Israel and neighboring Gulf states have killed dozens of people.
This week saw a new volley of drones launched at Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which said they came from Iraq where militias allied to Iran operate. Jordan reported shooting down a drone on Wednesday.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said when they launched the war that their aims were to curb Iran’s support for regional militias, dismantle its nuclear program, destroy its missile capabilities and make it easier for Iranians to topple their rulers.
But Iran has so far retained its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium, and its ability to threaten neighbors with missiles, drones and proxy militias. Its clerical rulers, who put down a mass uprising at the start of the year, have faced no sign of organized opposition since the war began.
