Opinion
Ansar Mahmood Bhatti
The recent elections in Gilgit-Baltistan have placed the PPP in a commanding position an outcome largely anticipated given the evolving political landscape and the ruling PML-N’s performance over the past three years. The budget has now been presented and is expected to pass smoothly through parliament. Yet, the pressing question remains: can the ruling party sustain its tenure for another two years? The establishment had sought to secure the 28th Amendment before the budget session, but disagreements among political parties delayed the move. As a result, the matter will likely be revisited after the budget. This makes the coming months particularly crucial, as they will shape the country’s future political trajectory.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), despite facing unprecedented restrictions, continues to gain political traction. In last elections in GB the party had secured two-thirds majority and this time it was even not allowed to contest the elections. Even then, the party’s resilience in the face of adversity has become a defining feature of its current trajectory. With each passing day, PTI’s popularity appears to be expanding, even though it is barred from holding public meetings, rallies, or gatherings. This paradoxical rise can be attributed to two major factors: the continued imprisonment of Imran Khan and the governance failures of the incumbent government.
The imprisonment of Imran Khan has transformed him into a symbol of resistance and injustice. For many Pakistanis, his confinement is not merely a legal matter but a political statement. The longer Khan remains behind bars, the more sympathy he garners from the masses. People perceive his imprisonment as a denial of democratic rights and an act of political victimization. This perception fuels public support for PTI, as citizens rally behind the idea of justice and fairness.
Interestingly, Khan’s absence from the political stage has not diminished his influence. Instead, it has amplified it. His supporters argue that he is more dangerous to his opponents while in jail than outside it, as his imprisonment continuously reminds the public of the alleged injustices meted out to him. This dynamic has created a powerful narrative: Khan as a martyr of democracy, and PTI as the vehicle of change.
Parallel to Khan’s imprisonment, the incumbent government’s inability to deliver on governance has further strengthened PTI’s position. The economy remains fragile, with foreign reserves largely dependent on borrowed funds. Inflation continues to burden ordinary citizens, while corruption, nepotism, and jobbery dominate the political landscape. These failures have eroded public trust in the ruling coalition, creating fertile ground for PTI’s resurgence.
Even on the international front, where Pakistan briefly gained relief due to the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, the political government failed to capitalize. Instead, the credit went to the military establishment, further diminishing the civilian government’s credibility. This imbalance has reinforced the perception that the political leadership is weak and ineffective, while PTI or for that matter PPP represent a stronger alternative.
The military establishment’s growing influence in political affairs has complicated the situation. The U.S.-Iran standoff highlighted how the military, rather than the civilian government, was seen as the stabilizing force. This dynamic raises questions about the balance of power in Pakistan. For PTI, PPP this presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While the parties may struggle against institutional resistance, its narrative of civilian supremacy and anti-establishment politics resonates with a significant portion of the population.
Talking specifically about the PTI, if current trends persist, the party is poised to emerge as the largest party in the next elections. The combination of Imran Khan’s symbolic power and the government’s governance issues creates a strong electoral advantage. However, the political landscape in Pakistan is fluid, and scenarios may change rapidly. If another national government setup is introduced before elections, PTI may secure a share in governance but not necessarily a leading role. Much will depend on how the establishment and ruling coalition manage the pre-election environment.
The future of PTI in Pakistan’s politics is shaped by a paradox: restrictions on its activities have not weakened the party but strengthened its appeal. Imran Khan’s imprisonment has become a rallying point for supporters, while governance failures of the incumbent government have amplified PTI’s narrative of change. As long as Khan remains in jail, public sympathy will continue to grow, making PTI a formidable force in the political arena.
The PPP, meanwhile, is eager to position itself as the viable alternative should a change at the federal level be pursued. Yet the critical question remains: can leaders who have already been tested truly deliver better results this time? Perhaps it is time to consider something new a national government that brings together all political parties. Such an arrangement may well be the option favored by the Establishment, but how it could be implemented remains the million-dollar question.
