Dr M Ali Hamza

It is not only Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) where the Prime Minister Pakistan applauded the unmatchable progress of China in recent history. And there is indeed no exaggeration.  China earned and well deserves the appreciation.

We must not forget another close neighbor who once had crumbled political system, constitutional crises, hyperinflation, monetary overhang, increasing rate of poverty, short of revenue and printed money to finance its debt, almost collapsed economy, bankruptcy of much industry, and a deep credit crunch caused shut down of many industries and brought about a protracted depression. Yes the post-Soviet Russia. In December 1991 after the breakup of USSR, Russia had to deal with multiple challenges. It was the challenge of transition that required political reform, economic restructuring and the redrawing of political boundaries.Once the super-power, sank into deep economic depression by the mid-1990s due to poorreform efforts. And financial crash of 1998 was never less than a last nail in the coffin. The economic crises wereas harsh as of immediate economic consequence of World War I, the fall of Tsarism, and the Russian Civil War. A report by World Bank revealed that population living in poverty raised to 49% in 1993 from 1.5% in the late Soviet era.Due to economic downfall post-Soviet era experienced an immediate depletion in public health, decline in birth-rates due to economic disorder, life expectancy of men and women dropped from 64 years to 57 years and from 74 to 71 respectively. A sharp increase of unnatural deaths: suicides, accidents, and murders, was witnessed among youth. The skyrocketing price hike of medicine was one of the major causes of exponential increase in deaths. Besides, in the struggle to transform from a state controlled to a market-oriented system, large collective and state farms that were provided with state-guaranteed marketing and supply channelshad to contend with the sudden loss of state support. Resultantly in less than 10 years, livestock accountsdropped by half, feed grains demand declined, and the area planted to grains dropped by 25%.The reduction in purchasing power affectedthe purchases of mineral fertilizer and other agricultural inputs and crop yields went down. New machinery got expensive and sources of capital investments shrink. Overall the agriculture sector of Russia suffered the worst of the odds. Moreover, converting the world’s largest state-controlled economy into a market-oriented economy was an uphill task. Regardless of the brilliance of policy makers, such conversionwas extraordinarily difficult. Being a crisis-wracked country Russia had to ground her policies in the neoliberal Washington Consensus of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Treasury Department.There were three main policies opted: liberalization, stabilization, and privatization. Yes it was shock therapy and the outcome was in shape of self-centered greedyRussian oligarchs. These were the businessmen who rapidly accumulated wealth under the shadow of privatization policy of newly emerged state of Russia.  The dwindling Soviet state offered state owned assets those had to be sold out to private parties and thus the business magnates pulled out most of the assets and started controlling the rest of the system. The shift from USSR to Russia was only beneficial for the business oligarchs, they tried to hijack, and they did to good extent, but then Putin factor came in. That is quite another topic.

Beside these glimpses of the Russian crises, within 20 years Russia has well-functioning presidential democracy, international prestige has been re-gained, real GDP grew on average 6.7% a year, average income increased 11% annually, and a consistently positive balance of the federal budget enabled the government to cut 70% of the external debt. Today Russia is the 5^thlargest national economy in Europe, the 11^thlargest in the world in terms of nominal GDP, and the 6^thlargest by purchasing power parity.Moreover life expectancy increased, mortality dropped, health care services covered.  A US-CIA estimate 99.7% literacy rate in Russia and according to a 2016 OECD report, 54% of Russia’s adults have attained a tertiary education making Russia the second-highest attainment of tertiary education among 35 OECD member-countries.In 2016 the US company Bloomberg rated Russia’s higher education as the third-best in the world. The Guardian reports Russia as the 6th most-popular destination for international students in 2014.In 2016 Russia exceeded Soviet grain production levels, and in that year became the world’s largest exporter of wheat.In 2018 Russia was among top ten producers of wheat, barley, sugar beet, potato, oats, maize, lentils, pumpkin, cabbage, pea, onion, apple, flax, rye etc. In the last years Russia has emerged as a big agricultural power again.

Pakistan seems to resemble Russia in many aspects. There was Stalinization resulted in rapid industrialization and other developments. We had Ayubization that caused industrialization, construction of dams, power stations, and other developments. Russia lost her land with the collapse of USSR, and we lost our land with fall of Dhaka. Russia converted from one party system to presidential democracy, and we are struggling for the true democracy. Russia came out of the worst economic crises, and we are trying to win-over the economic challenges. Russia had to crush the business and political oligarchy, and we are yet hijacked by oligarchy. Such similarities provide us the ground to benchmark Russia for socio-economic development as we benchmark China. Present Govt. seems keen to comprehend the method in which China progressed, but there will not be any harm to study additional case of another equally brilliantsuccess story.

By Muhammad Omar Iftikhar

It was expected that the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic will affect Pakistan and the world in the latter parts of 2020. The cases across Pakistan are accentuating that is an alarming situation. Strict SOPs must be followed by the public. Any virus tends to spread during winters. While the first lockdown imposed across Pakistan in March this year was a commendable step, the second version of the lockdown should be implemented. The objective is to break the chain of the spreading of the virus. Doctors had suggested that the second wave will be deadlier than before. However, the federal government and the provincial government of Sindh are not on not the same page now, as they were not on the same page before. Saeed Ghani even went on to say that there will be no winter vacations this year as “students have been given more holidays than usual this year due to the coronavirus pandemic.” Such a response will not bode well for the nation. Parents may not be willing to send their children during such times when the second wave of Covid-19 has mutated and has become fierce. While the people on the streets are not willing to wear a mask or use hand sanitizers, they must do so to protect themselves from the virus. The reluctance of the government to take concrete measures including implementing SOPs in offices, marriage halls, public places, and educational institutes will only create chaos and confusion as it did during the days leading to the first lockdown in March. The government officials need to stand tall with a resolute mind to implement SOPs that prevent the spreading of the virus. The people in general have not shown any preventive measures and still consider Covid-19 to be a hoax. The virus is pretty much real and firm steps must be implemented to reduce fatalities.

Gilgit-Baltistan is a region of natural beauty, rich in resources and spread over a vast area. This area covers 28,174 square miles or 72,971 square kilometers. Due to its mostly mountainous terrain, the population is only 1.8 million. The Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly has 24 seats, on which party-based elections are held. Earlier, two elections were won by PPP and PML-N respectively, this is the third general election, this time in the Gilgit-Baltistan Legislative Assembly elections, the credibility of all the political parties was at stake. The PTI took the field and kept alive the tradition that in Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, the same party that is ruling in the federation wins. Although the large gatherings of PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and PML-N Vice President Maryam Nawaz had given hope to both the parties. However, only one visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan worked and PTI took the lead. The PPP and PML-N have traditionally accused the government of gross rigging, while PTI leaders say it is in fact a public rejection of the PML-N and PDM statements.

There is no doubt that the victory of PTI is an expression of confidence of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan in the leadership of Prime Minister Imran Khan, but the accusations and protests of the opposition parties cannot be ignored, because election rigging is a new thing in our country nor is it a new thing to make allegations of rigging after the elections. The losers have always made similar allegations against their opponents, but it is a very dangerous trend to steal votes and change the election results at will. Therefore, in view of the sensitivity of Gilgit-Baltistan, a transparent investigation should be carried out instead of keeping silent by declaring the allegations of the opposition as mere political rhetoric, so that everything becomes clear. Otherwise, the enemy of the country is already waiting for the opportunity, if the noise of protests and rigging increases, the enemy can take advantage.

It is clear that Gilgit-Baltistan is a sensitive area and the decision to integrate it into Pakistan is being taken in view of the security interests of the country. Due to the geographical importance of Gilgit, this area is very important for Pakistan’s security. For the completion of the Pak-China Economic Corridor project, the peace of Gilgit and ending the political sense of deprivation of the people here is crucial. During the election campaign in GB, some trends have come to light that there is a special love for Pakistani forces in the region. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan believe that in case of any difficulty or natural calamity, only soldiers come to rescue. In the recent election campaign, PML-N leader Maryam Nawaz has been discussing Nawaz Sharif’s statement instead of the problems of the local population. This statement was considered foreign and unrealistic for the people of GB, which is why the PML-N, despite being in power in the past, has failed miserably. The PPP has historically played a key role in the reform process for the region. The local population values these services, but joining the PDM and bad governance in Sindh has played a key role in defeating the PPP.

Some things have proved to be very important in the PTI’s victory, including the alliance with dynamic and active groups at the local level. In addition, promises were made to provide new bridges, hospitals and jobs to the local population. Residents of Gilgit-Baltistan have seen the performance of both the old parties and are confident that the PTI will take the process of constitutional reform forward and make GB the fifth province of Pakistan. The traditional reason for the PTI’s victory is that Gilgit-Baltistan is usually ruled by the party that is in power at the center. Given the election results, the PTI government is certain. It is to be hoped that CPEC, along with new economic plans in GB, will make people’s lives easier, the PTI will take timely steps to give GB the status of a province in response to the long-standing demand of the local population.

After the peaceful completion of the election process in Gilgit-Baltistan, what seemed to be a flurry of activity or results, was not very local, but the arrival of the major national political parties was a must, but the GB’s peaceful and civilized political circles, regardless of party or constituency, have to keep a close eye on it. The opposition should also get out of the politics of accusations and put the interest of the country and the nation before its own political interest. Defeat is part of the election, the opposition should not pave way for unrest in the region under the guise of protests, given the seriousness of the situation, important personalities from Gilgit-Baltistan have demanded the formation of a grand Jirga, so that a middle ground can be found.The Prime Minister Imran Khan has also called on the opposition to enact legislation to make the elections transparent, so as to ensure the prevention of electoral fraud. If the opposition really wants to address electoral weaknesses beyond self-interest, they will have to support the government in passing legislation in parliament. In this way the spark of iniquity can be extinguished before it ignites or if the spark of this rigging is set on fire instead of being extinguished immediately, then the peace of the country along with Gilgit-Baltistan will be ruined.

Written by

Attiya Munawer

Twitter: @AttiyaMunawer