Shamim Shahid

Latest Islamic State Khorasan firing against occupants of a concert hall in Moscow has not only jolted the world but it is now giving new turns and directions to global strategic battling which is still controlled by two traditional rivals US and Russian Federation (successor of USSR). Whatever may be directions and targets of follow up of Moscow firing incidents, its epicenter wouldn’t be other than border regions between former British India and Afghanistan, dominated by Pushtoons.

No one can deny the fact that Pushtoons are no more independent as they have been made slaves and hostages by spymasters led in the sacred name of Islam and Jihad. The Islamic States (IS) also called Daesh is the latest of Mujahideen, sponsored, trained, financed and encouraged by US led allies against the former Soviet Union. The IS came into being at the time when at the last moment of the first decade of millennium, US lead allies were fed up by continuous resistance by Taliban in war devastated Afghanistan.

At early stages, the IS focused almost its attention and strategies against Shia Iran whereas it was engaged in efforts for the survival of the Syrian government. Despite wholehearted support of US led allies, the IS had failed in the Syrian war. IS militants after its failure, returned to war devastated Afghanistan at the time when Pakistan also pulled Al Qaeda remains out of tribal regions by commencing military operation Zarb-i-Azab on June 15, 2014 last.

Making Afghanistan as its base camp like Al Qaeda, the IS had made hellish lives of all those progressive, nationalists, democrats and moderate Pushtoon elders who are known for opposition to extremism and terrorism. At this stage, the IS constituted a 40-member council ( Shura ) for making its decisions and strategies.

Majority of the 40 member council were those who remain in important offices in banned Tehrik Taliban Pakistan(TTP). Still the IS is commanded by Pakistani origin Taliban who are in cordial and friendly links with Taliban ( Emirate Islami Afghanistan) governing Afghanistan. The Emirate Islami has already declared Afghanistan as a free and safe place for like minded militants from all over the world.

It doesn’t mean that with the killing of Osama Bin Laden and Dr. Aiman Al Zawahiri, Al Qaeda lost its existence or its contacts with other hardliners, operating/active on the soil of Afghanistan since the so-called cold war. Taliban regime in Afghanistan like in the late 90’s, once again gave another life to almost alleged terrorist groups especially Arabs and Central Asians. Similarly like in the past, the US is still maintaining dual standards on the issue of Muslim extremism. Through one or the other ways, the US spy masters are still in command of influencing Taliban (both Afghani and Pakistani), Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups from different countries through its experienced and tested allies like Pakistan and Saudis like Afghan Mujahideen. In 2019, the US helped Afghan in joint combat against IS in Afghanistan’s eastern zone bordering with Pakistan. Over three thousand IS militants, mostly Pakistanis have been arrested during the crackdown but the Emirate Islami accredited itself for their release after returning into power on August 15th 2021 last.

Like Pakistani militants associated with both Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, a large number of CAR militants already slipped to IS. There are also reports of Afghan Taliban and Mujahideen joining of IS. Some of these Afghan Taliban were disheartened when they were neglected in appointment against choice political, civil and military offices.

Though apparently, the Emirate Islami Afghanistan is making claims of stern action against the IS militants , it seems hard as  it (Emirate) does not want to harm all those who either played a role either in Afghan war against former USSR or War on terror, declared by US against Al Qaeda lead militants after 9/11. The Taliban regime time and again has been making claims of strengthening its intelligence network against IS but all these foreign groups and individuals have already established better understanding with the Afghan Taliban, majority of whom are now in occupation of important offices.

Pakistan is still in a bid to get relevance in the region. The US and China are compelled to have relations with Pakistan. Economically and politically, Pakistan seems to be losing in the race against India. India is considered the biggest consumer market in Asia, therefore, China didn’t afford Pakistan-India hostilities.

The new government of Shehbaz Sharif is making its best to have cordial relations between New Delhi and Islamabad but Pakistan’s powerful military establishment is thinking on other lines. Russian Federation President Putin has declared an Emergency and War like situation, by saying that NATO troops are in Ukraine. In such a circumstance it could be hard for Pakistan to stay away from another round of Soviet-US tussles. There are apprehensions that like the so-called cold war, Afghanistan, especially Pushtoons dominated areas on both sides of Pak- Afghan border would again be front line in the new battle, commencing through IS.

The views expressed in the article are the writer’s own.

By: Qamar Bashir

Press Secretary to the President(Rtd)

Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC

Since its inception, the new government has displayed a crucial optimism towards the prosperity and growth of the nation, characterized by an unparalleled determination labeled as “Iron determination” (Fouladi Azm) by the Prime Minister. Backed by the strength and support of the establishment, the unelected finance team is poised to make fundamentally critical and highly challenging decisions. These decisions, which even former dictators refrained from due to political ramifications, demonstrate a readiness to tackle obstacles that could deter progress.

The consistent backing from the establishment, which sustained the former coalition government led by Shahbaz Sharif and the interim government led by Anwar Kakar, has primed public sentiment to an extent where the time is now ripe to confront challenges head-on and progress without hesitation. These imminent decisions, projected to yield savings of PKR 6,828 billion per year, are poised to significantly benefit the nation.

The digitalization of FBR is projected to generate over Rs. 3000 billion annually by curbing pilferage and halting the distribution of illicit gains among tax officials. Currently, a predetermined portion of tax evasion, with 50% going to the taxpayer and their lawyer, while the remaining 50% is distributed from the lowest-ranking peon to the regional commissioner. This same ratio is observed within the sales tax and customs departments, from the bottom to the top echelons of the hierarchy.

The privatization of PIA, even if it doesn’t generate a single penny, could result in savings of over Rs. 800 billion in terms of debt and an annual subsidy of Rs. 294.5 billion allocated to sustain the inefficient, unprofessional, and sluggish airline. Likewise, privatization or outsourcing airports could save the national treasury approximately Rs. 21.4 billion annually.

The privatization of state-owned enterprises, despite potentially yielding no revenue from their sale, would result in significant savings for the state. With accumulated losses exceeding 500 billion, divesting these entities would save over Rs. 500 billion annually in subsidies and transfer the entities’ Rs. 1100 billion debt burden to the purchaser.

Similarly, privatizing the Distribution Companies (DISCOs) nationwide, even if they generate minimal proceeds from their sale, would yield substantial annual savings for the public. This includes Rs. 500 billion annually in electricity theft prevention and Rs. 639 billion in reduced line losses.

According to the Federal Footprint Consolidated SOE report for the fiscal years 2020-2022, published in December 2023, there are a total of 133 State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), consisting of 88 commercially operated and 45 non-commercial entities. Remarkably, the commercial SOEs are making substantial contributions to the national economy through corporate taxes, dividend payments, and employment generation.

In the financial sector, which includes banks, insurance companies, Non-Banking Financing Companies (NBFCs), and Development Financial Institutions (DFIs), there has been significant growth and transformation since FY2022. The sector’s assets have surged to an impressive Rs. 8.9 trillion, indicating consistent growth over the past four fiscal years. Revenues have also seen a remarkable increase, reaching Rs. 614.648 billion, marking a 31% rise from the previous fiscal year. Additionally, net profits have soared to Rs. 72.569 billion, demonstrating a remarkable 46.5% year-on-year increase.

In the commercial sector, Infrastructure, Transport, and Communication (ITC) emerge as significant players, boasting an asset base of Rs. 7.983 trillion. Led by entities like the National Highway Authority and PIA, this sector experienced a notable 38% revenue growth. However, despite these gains, challenges persist, with PIA grappling with a substantial net loss of Rs. 294.500 billion. Nonetheless, subsectors such as Ports & Shipping and Communication show promise for sectoral recovery and efficiency improvements.

The Manufacturing, Mining, & Engineering sector showcased robust growth, with assets soaring by 49% to Rs. 904.515 billion. Notably resilient, this sector posted a significant net profit of Rs. 12.267 billion. Subsectors like Metals & Mining and Printing played pivotal roles in this transformation, contributing substantial profits and demonstrating operational stability. Such progress underscores the sector’s potential for sustained growth and profitability.

In the Oil and Gas sector, boasting assets worth Rs. 5.620 trillion, remarkable revenue expansion of 82% was witnessed, fueled by increased energy prices post-COVID. Despite challenges, SOEs in this sector exhibited operational excellence, exemplified by PARCO’s outstanding achievement of a 725% increase in net profit. However, the sector faces ongoing struggles in balancing revenue growth with operational efficiency, particularly in the Marketing & Distribution segment, which remains susceptible to market risks due to high leverage and narrow profit margins.

Even in the Power sector, substantial growth has been observed, with assets climbing to Rs. 6.480 trillion and revenue reaching Rs. 3,000 billion in FY2022. However, operational margins remain a concern, particularly for Electricity Distribution Companies (DISCOs). Strategies must be devised to enhance revenue collection and mitigate operational inefficiencies to address losses effectively.

The Estate Development and Management sector exhibited impressive growth, with assets rising by 38% to Rs. 36.7 billion. Strong revenue growth of 57% to Rs. 6.256 billion and a robust profit margin of 36.8% underscored the sector’s resilience and profitability, positioning it well for sustained success.

In contrast, the Trading and Marketing sector saw a 47% increase in assets to Rs. 446.119 billion, largely driven by agricultural storage. However, challenges in revenue and profitability persisted due to socio-economic obligations, such as subsidized essential food commodities, necessitating a delicate balance between commercial operations and broader strategic objectives.

Despite revenue growth in the Media and Entertainment sector, operational hurdles led to a net loss in FY2022. Entities like PTV sustained losses of Rs. 2.72 billion, while SRBC faced liabilities of Rs. 10 billion.

The commercial portfolio of SOEs plays a crucial role in driving economic activity, contributing over Rs. 430 billion through corporate taxes and dividends. However, from an accounting perspective, a net loss of Rs. 161.820 billion was recorded, primarily due to significant depreciation charges and increased finance costs associated with borrowing, despite the extensive asset size.

In contrast, the non-commercial portfolio of SOEs, comprising 45 entities, including 39 independent companies, displayed a more positive economic outlook. Total assets amounted to Rs. 224.762 billion, with total revenue generated during the year reaching Rs. 34.420 billion and net profits standing at Rs. 8.313 billion.

However, to remain competitive and sustainable in the long run whether SOEs are currency profit or loss making, they must continually enhance their capacity, efficiency, and human resource productivity. This involves establishing a robust framework for research and development, innovation, and product/service enhancement. Regular upgrades to infrastructure, machinery, and technology, including the integration of Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, big data analytics, and computing power, are essential to stay ahead.

My own experience at the helm of State-Owned Shalimar Recording and Broadcasting Corporation highlighted the challenges of bureaucratic hurdles and resistance from worker unions, hindering the perpetual upgrades necessary for competitiveness. In contrast, private sector TV channels, unencumbered by bureaucratic red tape, have outpaced public broadcasters in various sectors and disciplines.

Privatization is a strategic imperative, regardless of whether State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) are currently profitable or operating at a loss. Unlocking their full potential through privatization can attract strategic investors, alleviate fiscal burdens, and foster market competition in today’s fiercely competitive environment.

Hence, the government should prioritize full-throttle privatization of all SOEs, irrespective of their profitability status. Profitable entities are attractive to investors due to their strong financial performance, market presence, and potential for returns. Conversely, privatizing loss-making enterprises presents an opportunity for restructuring, reallocation of resources, and reducing fiscal liabilities.

While some SOEs are vital for national interests, such as those related to infrastructure, national security, and social services, the decision to privatize should be carefully weighed based on economic considerations and long-term developmental implications.

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd)

In an era characterised by rapid technological advancements and evolving geopolitical landscapes, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is actively engaged in a comprehensive effort aimed at indigenisation, modernisation, restructuring, and enhancing operational efficiency to transform itself into a next-generation air force. As the intricacies of modern warfare prompt conventional forces to adapt swiftly, the PAF is taking a leading role in incorporating cutting-edge technologies to ensure full-spectrum readiness for the challenges of the 21st Century, led by its top command.

Operational Excellence

The PAF is committed to operational excellence and actively engages in international air exercises to enhance its capabilities, fortify partnerships, ensure heightened preparedness, and foster interoperability and coordination with friendly air forces. A pertinent example of this dedication is evident in the recent Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar undertaken against Iran at very short notice, showcasing PAF’s operational efficiency. Additionally, the PAF conducts operations against terrorist outfits on an asand-when-required basis with punitive and accurate deliveries, further exemplifying its prowess and effectiveness in diverse operational scenarios.

Combat and Support Aircraft

Under the Smart Induction Programme spearheaded by the military command, the acquisition of the fifth-generation J-31 Gyrfalcon stealth aircraft has been announced. PAF, under its present leadership, has also operationalised various combat and combat support systems equipped with advanced technologies. Notable examples include the J10C and JF-17 Block III, showcasing the PAF’s commitment to technological prowess.

Upgrading existing assets such as the F-16 and JF-17 Block I and II aircraft with the latest avionics suite ensures a balanced fiscal approach and operational efficiency. Spadework for acquiring the L-15 trainer from China has also been completed. Moreover, to boost operational support capabilities, it has also inducted air mobility platforms C-130H, Airbus 319 (Cargo and Air Ambulance), Boeing 737 cargo version, BKA-350i and Piper M-600.

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Electronic Warfare and UAVs

For electronic warfare, the PAF has inducted Global-6000 SOJ, Electronic Air Defence System (EADS), Multi-function Integrated Ground-to-Air EW System (MIGAES) and AntiDrone Systems. It has also acquired and operationalised unmanned aerial platforms TB2 and Wing Loong Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) and Akinci High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE), and loitering munitions. PAF will have the region’s first HALE platform, which will be equipped with AESA Radar and EW payloads in the coming months, and is also expected to perform in an Air-to-Ground role. The PAF has additionally acquired Shahpar-II and plans to induct Shahpar-III this year, besides, being actively involved in indigenous efforts to design and develop killer drones.

Integrated Air Defence

For an Integrated Air Defence System, PAF has fortified the outermost tier with the Highto-Medium Altitude Air Defence System (HIMAD), followed by the deployment of Closein-Weapon Systems in the subsequent tier, culminating in anti-swarm/anti-drone systems forming the innermost ring through the incorporation of advanced technologies such as HQ-9B, HIMADS, HQ-16, and Skydome/JN 614 anti-swarm systems, PAF is poised to deliver the essential safeguarding of vulnerable assets. Radar capabilities are also being upgraded with the introduction of the YLC-8E Mobile UHF Radar System, MMR and YLC18, contributing to maintaining a robust air defence environment.

Cyber and Space

Recognising the significance of the cyber and space domains in modern conflict, the PAF has established a Cyber and Space Command, equipped with state-of-the-art capabilities for both defence and offence. This dual focus on cyber and space capabilities positions the PAF as a comprehensive and forward-thinking force.

Restructuring and Development of Human Resource

Human resource development remains central to the PAF’s modernisation strategy. It has, therefore, initiated substantial organisational restructuring aimed at enhancing its agility and operational efficiency. In order to become lean and mean, PAF is right-sizing

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Its force to cut off the fat and have the right numbers to accomplish tasks effectively. This restructuring also prioritises equipping its personnel with the skills and knowledge required for modern air warfare, emphasising education and training from nurseries to academies and through dedicated hubs such as the Jinnah Centre of Character and Leadership and other higher seats of learning in the service.

Centres of Excellence and Rejuvenating Policies

Revamping centres like the Airpower Centre of Excellence, and adding the UAV Centre of Excellence, and Centre of Excellence for Air Mobility and Aviation Safety, besides the College of Air Defence, along with updated personnel policies, contribute to a culture of excellence within the PAF.

Development of Aerospace Industry (NASTP)

A cornerstone of the PAF’s modernisation efforts is the drive towards indigenisation and self-reliance. The National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP) serves as the flagship initiative in this regard, with clusters in Kamra and techno-parks in Rawalpindi, Karachi, Lahore, and Kharian. These technology divisions span aerospace, cyber, IT, AI, training, certification, and incubation domains, fostering innovation and collaboration with the private sector. The private sector’s integration, with over 75 cohorts, start-ups, and SMEs, underscores the PAF’s commitment to leveraging external expertise and resources. The Aerospace Design and Innovation Centre, scheduled for inauguration shortly, will further enhance capabilities in designing and developing advanced aerospace technologies. Furthermore, to provide security for these initiatives, NASTP has been placed under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), highlighting the integral role it is expected to play in Pakistan’s economic revival.

Self-Reliance

The indigenisation effort extends to the development of Pakistan’s first indigenous fighter aircraft. The JF-17 PFX programme, set to be formally launched alongside the Aerospace Village during the first half of 2024, represents a significant milestone in the PAF’s pursuit of self-reliance. It has progressed to 30 to 40 percent into the design phase, alongside other development and modernisation initiatives.

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Conclusion

Based on the pillars of indigenisation, modernisation, restructuring, and operational efficiency, the PAF’s transformation under Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu’s leadership is a testament to his forward-thinking approach to addressing the challenges of contemporary warfare. The commitment to the operationalisation of other niche technologies required for the development of the aerospace industry in Pakistan, and self-reliance will not only bolster the PAF’s capabilities but also contribute significantly to Pakistan’s economic growth.

Air Marshal Asim Suleiman (Retd) is President at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore.