By Qamar Bashir
The martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, along with the earlier loss of his sons, nephews, and niece, is profoundly sad, worrisome, abhorrent, and unforgivable. The entire Muslim world and all those with any sense of humanity globally have condemned this horrendous attack and are mourning the heartless killing of Ismail Haniyeh, a prominent leader of the Gaza Strip who was waging a relentless struggle against Israeli occupation on both political and military fronts.
However, Iran and the rest of the Muslim world should not let their emotions drive them to impulsive decisions and actions. It is crucial to avoid giving any pretext to Israel, the USA, or the Western world to justify actions that could further harm Iran, similar to the devastation seen in Afghanistan.
Our memories remain vivid when George Bush Jr. issued an ultimatum to the Taliban in Afghanistan to hand over Osama Bin Laden to the USA, who was accused of masterminding the 9/11 attacks and other high-profile assaults on American interests globally. The Taliban, compelled by their tradition of hospitality and their readiness to sacrifice their lives to protect a guest who had sought refuge with them, refused.This defiance enraged the USA and its allies, leading to a devastating attack on Afghanistan, the wounds of which remain fresh and painful. Now they have forced Iran to fall into a similar position expecting similar action and similar reaction.
It is widely speculated that the CIA of the USA, MI-5 of the UK, and Mossad of Israel have chosen the timing, event, and place to eliminate their sworn enemy with great intelligence. For the USA, Israel, and the rest of the Western world, Iran is considered an evil country governed by an evil regime. They are extremely wary of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear enrichment, believing that Iran has achieved weapons-grade uranium. Consequently, making an atomic bomb would be a relatively straightforward task for Iran.
Moreover, Iran’s national pride, the religious revolution that has persisted since 1979, and its support and influence over various militant factions have solidified its position as a formidable adversary to the USA, the West, and particularly Israel.
Iran’s leverage extends to Hezbollah in Lebanon; in Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), including groups like Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and the Badr Organization; in Syria, Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zainebiyoun; in Yemen, the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah); and in Palestine, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Additionally, in Bahrain, Iran supports various small militant groups involved in anti-government activities.
This extensive network of influence and support has positioned Iran as the number one enemy to the USA, the West, and especially Israel, which views Iran’s backing of these groups as a direct threat to its survival.
The timing of targeting Iran coincides with the inauguration of the new president, who succeeded former President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter accident—an incident that some conspiracy theories suggest was orchestrated by Israel to avenge missile and drone attacks on Israel. Analysts believe this strategic timing aims to provoke Iran into attacking Israel and the USA, thereby providing a pretext for a robust military response. The prime objectives of such an attack would be to neutralize Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities, diminish the strength of its armed forces and the elite Revolutionary Guard, and cripple its economy to curtail its ability to finance and supply weapons to its proxies across the Middle East.
This theory resonate well with the Israel’s ruthless military onslaught on the palestinians in Gaza which did not stop even after protests in all parts of the world against the killing of over 70,000 innocent palestinians including children, women, elderly and vulnerable groups with the declared objectives to eliminate Hamas completely from Gaza Strip no matter what ever is the cost. This theory also resonates well with Israel’s declared intention to permanently resolve the Hezbollah prowess and prowess of Houthis in Yemen and other Iranian proxies elsewhere.
They also know that without reducing the military and economic might of Iran, no matter how seriously they inflict damage to these proxies they will re-emerge even stronger and better. Therefore, in all probability this attack was deliberately executed in Iran to infuriate Iran’s leadership and bait them to launch an attack on Israeli and US interests.
Let us build two hypothetical scenarios one in which Iran has attacked Israel and the US and second it seeks justice through diplomatic means.
If Iran decides to retaliate against Israel and the USA following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the immediate consequences would likely involve extensive military strikes by Israel and the USA targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, military bases, and infrastructure. This would lead to significant casualties and destruction within Iran, further crippling its economy and military capabilities. The conflict would escalate rapidly, potentially drawing in regional allies and causing widespread instability. The global economy would also be impacted, with oil prices soaring due to instability in the Persian Gulf.
Conversely, if Iran opts for a diplomatic resolution through the United Nations, it would seek international condemnation of the attack and justice for the violation of its sovereignty. This approach would garner support from several countries, leading to a formal UN inquiry and increased international attention. Diplomatic efforts might result in the easing of some sanctions on Iran, stabilizing its economy and enhancing domestic stability. By choosing diplomacy over conflict, Iran would maintain its regional influence through non-military means and improve its international standing. This path would prevent further destruction and loss of life, fostering gradual improvements in regional stability and potential economic recovery for Iran.
In this precarious situation where Pakistan could be directly affected, it is imperative for the country to resort to active and proactive diplomacy, leveraging its brotherly relations with Iran and its Non-NATO ally status with the USA. Pakistan should play a proactive yet balanced role in mediating tensions between Iran, Israel, and the USA by leveraging diplomatic channels and international platforms. With the support of like-minded countries, both Muslim and non-Muslim, and utilizing forums like the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and other regional and international bodies, Pakistan can work to calm heightened emotions and help sanity prevail. This approach, if successful, will save the region from imminent turmoil and instability, elevate Pakistan’s status as a peace-pursuing nation, and safeguard its national interests.
By Qamar Bashir
Former Press Secretary to the President
Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
