Qamar Bashir
Macomb, Detroit, Michigan
The USA, in recent history, has committed grave strategic blunders and, interestingly, managed to make others pay for these mistakes while cleverly insulating itself from the consequences. In the wars against Iraq and Libya, the USA, often with its allies coerced into joining under false pretexts, fabricated reasons, and manufactured evidence of weapons of mass destruction, invaded Iraq. This invasion destroyed the country, killed hundreds of thousands of people, and reduced what was once one of the richest and fastest-developing nations in the Middle East to rubble.
Not satisfied with the devastation in Iraq, the USA turned its attention to Libya, orchestrating the overthrow and eventual killing of Muammar Gaddafi. Gaddafi had kept Libya’s society, composed of many warring and independent tribes, united and stable. Under his leadership, Libya prospered, and its people enjoyed a relatively high standard of living. Moreover, the country provided employment to thousands of workers from other nations to support its rapid development. The removal of Gaddafi plunged Libya into chaos, destabilizing the region and unleashing a wave of violence and tribal conflicts that persist to this day.
Like Iraq, Libya was reduced to rubble, and the entire Middle East was destabilized. Poverty became rampant, and in search of better lives, people began migrating to Europe on unsafe, overcrowded boats. Many of these boats sank in the middle of the sea, killing their passengers, while the few that reached European shores created a refugee crisis in multiple European countries. Meanwhile, the USA, far beyond the reach of these small boats, remained largely unaffected by the consequences of this crisis.
Similarly, the predatory nature of the USA led to the so-called conquest of Afghanistan, where it remained for over a decade before suffering a humiliating retreat. This withdrawal left behind all Afghans who had sided with the USA in grave danger. Afghanistan was plunged into the darkness of the dark ages, destabilizing the entire region. Tons of lethal weapons were left behind, falling into the hands of the Taliban, insurgent groups, and factions like TLP, which are now destabilizing the social fabric of Pakistan and other countries in the region. Meanwhile, the USA and its European allies remained largely insulated from the aftermath of their humiliating defeat in Afghanistan.
While the USA and its allies in Europe and the Middle East were gleefully celebrating the success of Anti Assad Militias their own creation, they perhaps did not anticipate that the leaders of the militias, after conquering Syria, would announce their next target: the liberation of Al-Quds (Jerusalem), avenging the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians in Gaza and elsewhere, and pledging not to rest until Israel is reduced to a position where it has no ability to impose its hegemony in the region.
These statements are likely giving sleepless nights to Middle Eastern countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey. They must also be deeply concerning to Israeli leadership and to leaders in the USA, who likely never imagined that the very forces they helped raise—with their sweat, blood, and hard-earned money—to insulate Israel from the Syrian threat under Assad, would turn their guns with lightning speed toward Israel. This turn of events is the very outcome the USA and its allies sought to avoid when they intervened to remove Assad, who was supported by Russia and Iran.
While building the anti-Assad militias, the USA and its allies, in their haste, empowered various groups with money and weapons, overlooking their deeply entrenched and divergent ideologies and objectives. The militias were led by figures with different goals: Riad al-Asaad and Salim Idris of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) advocated for a secular, democratic Syria; Abu Mohammad al-Julani of Jabhat al-Nusra, aligned with al-Qaeda, aimed to establish an Islamic state; Zahran Alloush of Jaish al-Islam sought a Sunni Islamic government; and Hassan Aboud of Ahrar al-Sham pursued an Islamic state under Sharia law. Leaders like Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi of ISIS aimed for a global caliphate. Although their common goal was to overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s Alawite-dominated regime, their ideological divides—ranging from secular democracy to hardline Islamism—led to fragmentation and competition, complicating their ability to present a united front.
The anti-Assad militias, after conquering Syria, have redirected their focus toward attacking Israel to avenge Palestinian casualties in Gaza and “liberate” Jerusalem (Al-Quds). This would, like Afghanistan, Iraq and Lybia, would create a significant security and geopolitical crisis. Israel would face an unprecedented threat from a coalition of Islamist forces operating close to its borders, particularly in the Golan Heights. Such attacks would likely escalate into a broader regional conflict, potentially drawing in actors like Hezbollah from Lebanon and Iran, further destabilizing the region. For Israel, this would necessitate a robust military response, including preemptive strikes and heightened defense measures, leading to a protracted and destructive confrontation.
For the United States, the scenario would highlight the blowback of supporting anti-Assad factions during the Syrian Civil War. Having indirectly empowered groups now attacking its closest ally, U.S. credibility and regional strategy would come under severe scrutiny. The U.S. would face pressure to provide military and diplomatic support to Israel, entangling itself further in Middle Eastern conflicts. This could strain relations with Arab allies, many of whom might face domestic unrest as public sentiment in their countries sympathizes with actions against Israel, challenging their governments’ ties with the U.S. and Israel.
Regionally, the conflict could destabilize Arab states that have normalized relations with Israel, such as the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, putting agreements like the Abraham Accords at risk. Iran, already an opponent of Israel, might exploit the situation to bolster its influence by aligning with militias or intensifying its rhetoric of resistance. The ensuing instability could disrupt global oil supplies, escalate terrorist recruitment worldwide, and embolden extremist movements. Ultimately, this scenario would deepen divisions between pro- and anti-Western factions, jeopardizing regional and global peace.
The history of mankind, which we meticulously document for various purposes, serves as a tool for learning and avoiding the strategic, tactical, and ideological errors that have led to the destruction of societies and civilizations. Yet, our own recent history suggests that even nations at the apex of civilization fail to learn from their past mistakes. Despite the lessons of history, these uncalculated blunders continue to wreak havoc on societies and communities worldwide, leaving a trail of chaos and suffering that may persist for generations to come.
Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President(Rtd)
Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former MD, SRBC
