Qamar Bashir

The September 8th public meeting did not attract the large crowd the PTI leadership had hoped for—one that could have put significant pressure on the government and provided much-needed public support for the PTI’s key demands, which included the release of Imran Khan, the configuration of election results based on Form 45, the release of arrested workers, the army stepping back from politics, and ensuring the judiciary’s independence. However, ironically, the government ended up aiding the PTI’s cause by placing containers to block all routes to the venue, dispersing the crowd with tear gas, and making a series of arrests after the event.

These unnecessary and poorly thought-out actions by the government ultimately played into the PTI’s hands. As the media shifted its focus from the less-than-expected turnout to the government’s aggressive and disproportionate response, it inadvertently boosted the PTI’s narrative. Had the government not taken such measures, it might have dampened PTI’s momentum, demoralized its leadership, and disillusioned its supporters. But, unfortunately for the government and establishment, and fortunately for the PTI, the government did exactly what it should have avoided.

To add insult to the injury, the arrest of PTI parliamentarians within the premises of the parliament and the rumors of abduction of the Chief Minister and other leaders catapulted the popularity of the PTI to new heights, increased its sympathy vote and conversely eroded the political capital of the government and the establishment.

Instead of exercising grace and restraint, the government responded to the tall claims, threats, and foul language from the opposition with even worse language. Rana Sanaullah, the government spokesman and de facto spokesperson for the establishment, hurled even more severe accusations and threats, reminiscent of the way Sultan Rahi used to challenge villains in old movies. He went as far as to challenge the KP Chief Minister, daring him to enter Punjab and face severe consequences. Sanaullah warned that the Chief Minister would not be allowed to hold a public meeting at Minar-e-Pakistan and would be insulted in a manner even worse than what was done to the Punjab Chief Minister.

These statements flagrantly disregarded the constitutional rights guaranteed to every citizen of Pakistan. Article 15 of the Constitution ensures the freedom of movement, stating, “Every citizen shall have the right to remain in, and, subject to any reasonable restriction imposed by law in the public interest, enter and move freely throughout Pakistan and to reside and settle in any part thereof.” Further, Article 16 guarantees the freedom of assembly, providing that “Every citizen shall have the right to assemble peacefully and without arms, subject to any reasonable restrictions imposed by law in the interest of public order.” Finally, Article 19 guarantees freedom of speech, ensuring that every citizen has the right to express their views, subject to restrictions related to the glory of Islam, national security, and public order. The threats and challenges issued by the government’s spokesperson clearly violated these fundamental rights enshrined in the Constitution, which protect every citizen, including public figures like the KP Chief Minister.

In its reactive press conference, the PTI accused the government and establishment of subverting the Constitution, violating laws and regulations, disrespecting the sanctity of Parliament, abducting party leaders and workers, and suffocating the freedoms of the press, speech, and assembly—rights guaranteed under the Constitution.

During the press conference, the PTI leaders expressed regret for any inadvertent remarks made against the state, the military, and women in general. However, they stood by the substantive parts of the speech, particularly those delivered by the KP Chief Minister.

The General Secretary fully endorsed the Chief Minister’s statements regarding the role of the Army. Specifically, he supported the claim that the military should “put its house in order” and return to its barracks, vacating roles not constitutionally mandated to them. He emphasized that the Army should refrain from interfering in the electoral process, influencing the selection of parliamentarians, and undermining the people’s mandate. Furthermore, he called for the military to divest from its business, investment, trade, and real estate ventures, as these activities fall outside the Army’s core constitutional responsibilities. His key demand was for the Establishment to loosen its iron grip on the country, free the country and allow the nation and its people to breathe freely.

The speaker apologized for the part of the speech that insulted journalists but endorsed the substantive claim, stating that conducting interviews in the drawing rooms of individuals who were abducted, tortured, and coerced into giving confessional statements under duress goes against the established norms and ethics of journalism.

They also apologized for the derogatory remarks made against Parliament but stood by the part where the KP Chief Minister referred to it as a “faux parliament” lacking any mandate or endorsement from the people, calling its members stooges of those who brought them to power.

The speakers then announced a countrywide protest to be held on the coming Friday, condemning the unconstitutional actions of the government. The protest’s main objectives are to demand the release of arrested PTI leaders, including Imran Khan, and to call for free and fair elections.

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During the press conference, the KP Chief Minister, who had been absent for several hours, returned to his seat. It was revealed that he had been in a meeting with the establishment, discussing various political and law-and-order issues. However, the full details of these discussions came to light later. In a separate interview, Faisal Vawda added a critical perspective, hinting that while the Chief Minister was able to return this time, if a similar episode were to occur again in the future, he would face severe consequences.

The disproportionate reaction of the government and establishment against the PTI has once again elevated the party to a high moral ground, significantly boosting its political capital and public sympathy. This overreaction has had a negative impact on the law and order situation, heightened political tensions, and further eroded Pakistan’s international image. It has also scared away foreign traders, investors, and businessmen, worsening the overall perception of the country and further depleting public support for the government and the establishment.

Qamar Bashir

Former Press Secretary to the President

Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France

Former MD, SRBC, CEO, ATV

Muhammad Faiq Shah

In the contemporary global economic system, many developing nations, including Pakistan, rely on external financial support to stabilize their economies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other multilateral institutions have often been a lifeline for Pakistan, providing much-needed financial assistance to cope with fiscal deficits, inflation, and external debt crises. However, the reliance on external entities can result in stringent conditions that often lead to domestic policy challenges, increased debt, and economic vulnerability. This raises an important question: Can Pakistan achieve sustainable development and prosperity without the assistance of institutions like the IMF? The answer lies in reshaping economic policies, prioritizing internal resources, and pursuing innovative solutions.

One of Pakistan’s foremost economic challenges is its low tax-to-GDP ratio, which hinders revenue generation and forces the government to rely on external borrowing. As of 2023, Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio was approximately 9.5%, one of the lowest in the region, compared to India’s 17% and Bangladesh’s 9.9%. This inadequate revenue generation pushes the country towards borrowing and external financial support. A significant portion of Pakistan’s economy operates in the informal sector, accounting for 35-40% of GDP, according to the World Bank. By formalizing this sector and improving tax compliance, Pakistan can tap into previously untaxed areas. Formalizing just 20% of this informal economy could increase government revenues by up to 2-3% of GDP. Implementing a progressive tax system that ensures the wealthiest 10% of the population, who control 60% of the nation’s wealth, contribute fairly, could generate an additional PKR 1 trillion annually. Additionally, digital tax collection has already led to a 17% increase in tax returns in 2022 compared to the previous year, showing the potential for further improvement through technological solutions.

Pakistan’s trade deficit remains one of its most pressing economic concerns. In the fiscal year 2023, the country’s exports stood at $31.8 billion, while imports were $58.7 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $26.9 billion. To move towards sustainable development, Pakistan must focus on an export-led growth strategy. Diversifying its export base is critical, as textiles currently account for 60% of exports. Pakistan’s tech exports were only $2.6 billion in 2022, compared to Vietnam’s $96 billion in 2020, highlighting the need to prioritize tech-based goods. Improving agricultural productivity is another key factor. Currently, Pakistan’s wheat yield is 30-40% lower than countries like Egypt and the United States. Increasing productivity through modern agricultural practices and efficient water management could lead to significant savings. For example, Pakistan’s water scarcity crisis is expected to worsen by 2025, but adopting water-efficient practices such as drip irrigation could mitigate the problem and save the economy billions.

With a median age of 22.8 years, Pakistan has a young population that could be an economic asset. However, 58% of Pakistan’s youth is unskilled, limiting their potential to contribute to economic growth. Pakistan’s education expenditure is currently only 2.8% of GDP, compared to the global average of 4.5%. By increasing this to at least 4%, the country could drastically improve access to quality education, particularly in STEM fields, similar to how South Korea invested in education and saw its GDP grow from $2.7 billion in 1960 to $1.6 trillion in 2020. In addition, Pakistan spends only 1.2% of GDP on healthcare, while the World Health Organization recommends at least 6%. Increased spending on healthcare can lead to a healthier, more productive workforce, potentially increasing economic output by 2-3% annually.

Pakistan’s energy crisis is a major impediment to growth. The country spends $14 billion annually on energy imports, while energy shortages cost the economy an estimated 2-2.5% of GDP each year. Pakistan has vast untapped renewable energy potential, with 50,000 MW in wind energy and over 2.9 million MW in solar energy. However, the country utilizes less than 5% of its renewable energy potential. Scaling up renewable energy could not only reduce the import bill but also create approximately 300,000 green jobs. Additionally, reducing energy wastage by upgrading transmission infrastructure could save up to PKR 200 billion annually, according to the World Bank.

Corruption remains a significant challenge for Pakistan, costing the economy 5% of its GDP annually. Strengthening institutions like the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and promoting digital governance could reduce corruption and improve economic efficiency. For example, e-governance in Estonia saves the country 2% of GDP annually. Pakistan could potentially save PKR 500 billion annually through the digitalization of public services. Strengthening public institutions to ensure transparency could add an additional $7-8 billion to Pakistan’s economy annually by reducing corruption by just 2%.

Lastly, Pakistan’s national savings rate is just 11-13% of GDP, compared to an average of 30-35% in emerging economies. Encouraging domestic savings and investments could reduce reliance on external loans. Expanding financial inclusion, where currently only 21% of the population has access to formal banking services, could mobilize up to PKR 1 trillion in untapped capital. Strengthening capital markets and improving corporate governance could also attract significant investment, reducing the need for external financial support.

In conclusion, achieving prosperity and development without the IMF or other external support is a challenging yet achievable goal for Pakistan. The statistics indicate that by focusing on domestic reforms, fostering export-led growth, investing in human capital, promoting energy independence, and reducing corruption, Pakistan can significantly enhance its economic performance. By adopting innovative solutions and utilizing its internal resources effectively, Pakistan can chart a path to self-reliant and sustainable economic development.

Muhammad Faiq Shah is a businessman, political figure, and dedicated philanthropist. He can be reached via Email: [email protected]