Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer

For over a decade, Xi Jinping, has consolidated power to an extent unseen and has reshaped the CCP elite through a sweeping anti-corruption campaign, curtailed civil society, restructured and modernized the military and expanded state involvement in the economy. He has also pursued assertive foreign policies escalating military activity around Taiwan, expanding China’s presence in the South China Sea, deploying confrontational “wolf warrior” diplomacy and deepening ties with Russia even after its invasion of Ukraine. This has ushered in what is widely viewed as Xi’s personal era in Chinese politics.

Past precedent shows that power transfers in China have been fraught with political intrigue, factional struggles and even instability. The 2012 leadership change from Hu Jintao to Xi occurred amid rumors though unsubstantiated of coups and assassinations, underscoring the volatility of such moments.

Succession politics often begin long before a leader steps down, as incumbents seek to secure their legacy by installing loyal successors. Mao Zedong’s fixation on preserving his revolutionary vision in his final decade led to the Cultural Revolution, while Deng Xiaoping ensured his economic reforms continued even after relinquishing formal titles. Xi is likely to follow the strongman precedent of Mao and Deng, selecting a successor ideologically aligned with him. However, survival in elite politics requires more than shared ideology successors must also navigate the rivalry of those passed over, making political cohesion fragile.

A critical determinant of succession success is military backing. Although the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has never directly seized political control, it plays a decisive “kingmaker” role in internal CCP struggles. The Mao–Hua Guofeng transition illustrates this: Mao’s chosen heir lacked strong political and military standing, surviving only temporarily with top generals’ support before being ousted by Deng. Xi himself benefited from strong military ties upon taking office, enabling him to purge rivals and reshape the PLA leadership. Maintaining such control will be essential for any future leader.

Historically, personalist rulers in China have cycled through multiple would-be successors Mao discarded Liu Shaoqi and Lin Biao before settling on Hua, while Deng replaced Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang before elevating Jiang Zemin. Such instability risks factional splits, as seen in the 1989 Tiananmen protests, which were partly triggered by Hu Yaobang’s death. Leadership transitions can also influence foreign policy Xi’s awareness of limited time could increase his willingness to take risks, particularly over Taiwan, which he views as central to national rejuvenation. Yet the potential costs of failure military defeat, economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation could temper such ambitions.

The PLA’s influence during succession raises the danger of politicized military assessments. Leaders may receive intelligence skewed to match their preferences, leading to strategic miscalculations. Deng’s 1979 invasion of Vietnam undertaken partly amid his maneuvering to oust Hua was a political gambit with poor battlefield results, illustrating how domestic power struggles can distort foreign policy decisions.

Determining Xi’s successor will be complicated by demographic and political constraints. None of the current seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee fit the ideal profile of a relatively young leader capable of ruling for many years. Older candidates risk short tenures, while younger “dark horse” picks would require sidelining an entire generation of senior politicians, potentially causing long-term fractures. Historical cautionary tales such as the Soviet Union’s unstable transitions in the 1980s loom large in Xi’s thinking.

If Xi dies unexpectedly without naming a successor, the CCP constitution calls for the Central Committee to elect a new leader. In reality, a smaller circle of elites, possibly including military figures, would likely decide beforehand. Premier Li Qiang could be a natural choice, but military-backed rivals could displace him. The best-case scenario for stability is for Xi to designate and gradually empower a successor in his final years, as Deng did with Jiang Zemin. This would require giving the heir key posts in party administration and military leadership to build competence and authority.

Failing to groom a capable successor increases the risk of a weak leader falling to internal challenges, destabilizing both Chinese politics and international relations. For the United States, the looming succession represents both a potential turning point and a source of uncertainty. However, Washington should resist the temptation to interfere both because of the risk of backlash and because the CCP still interprets the 1989 protests through the lens of perceived foreign subversion. Instead, careful observation and preparedness for post-Xi adjustments are advised.

A future leader could similarly steer China toward moderation and greater openness, though this outcome is far from guaranteed. Xi’s eventual succession will be a defining moment, shaping China’s domestic governance, its military orientation and its global posture for years to come.

Kaynat Siddique

Punjab’s fertile plains have long been home to cities that carry centuries of cultural, political and spiritual heritage. Among these lies Chunian, a city whose roots stretch back nearly two centuries and beyond. While modern urban centers like Lahore, Faisalabad and Multan dominate contemporary discussions, Chunian quietly stands as a reminder of Punjab’s layered history. Its mosques, temples and neighborhoods echo the architectural diversity of bygone eras, while its myths, legends and ruins connect the present with a rich past.In its early days, the mighty River Beas flowed beside Chunian, not only serving as a lifeline for agriculture and trade but also inspiring poets and writers with its romantic atmosphere. Today, though the river has dried up, traces of its old course can still be seen, silently telling stories of a once-thriving riverine culture.

How Chunian acquired its name has been a subject of folklore and debate. Two dominant stories circulate. The first attributes the name to Chuni, daughter of Raja Todar Mal, the famed finance minister of Emperor Akbar. Following her father’s death, Chini ruled the region and the city came to be associated with her name. Over time, “Chini” transformed into “Chunian.” Interestingly, another town nearby Kanganpuris said to have been named after Chini’s sister, Kangan, reinforcing the tale’s credibility.The second version ties Chunian’s origins to Sufi traditions. It suggests that a woman disciple of the saint Kamal Shah settled in the area and her name also Chuni was immortalized in the city’s title. While the first story enjoys wider acceptance, both illustrate how history and spirituality often intertwine in Punjab’s towns.

The historical landscape of Chunian is not limited to Mughal legends. Archaeological findings suggest that its roots may go as far back as the Indus Valley Civilization. In the 1970s, local historian Syed Husain Zaidi discovered pottery fragments, copper coins and even a gold bead in nearby mounds. Experts later confirmed these artifacts to be more than 200 years old and they were placed in the Lahore Museum for preservation.From these discoveries, historians deduced that Chunian may once have been a peaceful manufacturing hub, producing swords and helmets for Mughal armies. Local lore even claims that the city has been destroyed and rebuilt seven times, reflecting both the resilience of its people and the challenges of surviving waves of invasions and migrations.

Its association with Syed Waris Shah, the celebrated Punjabi poet and author of Heer Ranjha, further highlights chunian’s cultural richness. Shah is said to have lived briefly in Chunian, where he penned verses that referenced the city. A manuscript in his handwriting remains preserved in the Waris Shah Academy, a treasure for lovers of Punjabi literature.This poetic connection elevates Chunian from a mere historical settlement to a cultural landmark, intertwining literature, spirituality and local identity.

The Mughal era gifted Chunian with recognition, but under British colonial rule, the city gained administrative importance. In 1885, Chunian was declared a Tehsil of Lahore and at the time, it was the largest in the district. Following independence, with the creation of Kasur District in 1976, Chunian was integrated as one of its Tehsils. Later, in 1992, Pattoki, Bhiphiro and Phoolnagar were carved out as separate units, reducing Chunian’s administrative reach but not its cultural significance.Local folklore also connects Chunian to the tragic Punjabi love tale of Sassi Punnu. According to legend, Sassi, abandoned by her father in a floating wooden box, was discovered near the shrine of Syed Kamal Mustafa (Mattoo Shah). Raised by a washerman, she later fell in love with Prince Punnu of Makran. Their separation and eventual demise in the desert remain immortalized in poetry and song, adding another layer of mystique to Chunian’s history.

While Chunian’s past is steeped in myths and ruins, its present reflects the vibrancy of Punjabi culture. Weddings, Sufi music and annual festivals are integral to daily life, while Punjabi remains the mother tongue, with Urdu and English increasingly used in education and administration.Chunian is well-connected to Lahore and Kasur, providing residents with access to better educational and economic opportunities. Modern infrastructure roads, electricity, gas and water has gradually transformed it into a semi-urban hub.

One of its most celebrated institutions is the Chunian Cardiac Hospital, established in 2012 during the tenure of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. It offers free or low-cost treatment to patients from surrounding villages, embodying a rare example of accessible healthcare in rural Punjab. Alongside this, both government and private schools including branches of national chains like Army Public School and Smart School cater to the growing demand for modern education.

Not far from Chunian lies the legendary Changa Manga Forest, Asia’s largest man-made forest, dating back to 1866. Initially developed by the British for timber needs, it now serves as a recreational space for families, students and nature lovers. The forest is entwined with folklore as well its name comes from two bandit brothers, Changa and Manga, who supposedly hid in its dense thickets after looting travelers. Today, the forest is home to wildlife, a small railway line and picnic spots, making it a beloved retreat for people of the region.

Chunian also plays a role in Punjab’s agrarian economy through the Brother Sugar Mills, one of the province’s major sugar-processing units. Established in the mid-20th century, it provided employment to locals and a steady market for sugarcane farmers. However, financial scandals including a Rs. 6 billion default on farmer payments in 2016 led to its sealing by the Lahore High Court. Despite such setbacks, the mill remains symbolic of Chunian’s role in bridging agriculture and industry.

Chunian embodies the essence of Punjab: a fusion of history, folklore, culture and resilience. Yet, like many smaller cities, it risks being overshadowed by urban sprawl and neglect. Its archaeological heritage requires preservation, its cultural tales need systematic documentation and its infrastructure must be further developed to meet modern needs.As Pakistan redefines its urban and rural identities, cities like Chunian should not be forgotten. They remind us that history is not only written in capitals but also in the quiet resilience of smaller towns that carry the soul of a nation.

In the last, I thankful of Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer who graciously dedicated his time to guiding and mentoring me. Driven by a genuine passion, he goes above and beyond to help students enhance their writing skills and successfully complete their assignments. His expertise shines prominently in subjects such as Pakistan Studies, where he enlightens eager minds about the captivating history of Pakistan and its remarkable contributions. Dr. Muhammad Akram Zaheer truly embodies the essence of an inspiring educator, leaving an indelible mark on all those fortunate enough to be under his tutelage.

Kaynat Siddique

Student DPT University of Okara

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