By Qamar Bashir
For decades, presidents of the United States have believed they could shape the world by interfering in other nations’ affairs—installing leaders of their choice, propping up allies who served their interests, and sidelining or imprisoning nationalist figures who threatened American designs. This pattern, repeated from Latin America to the Middle East, has been central to Washington’s projection of power. But under President Donald Trump, the limits of that model are becoming clear. Despite America’s military reach and financial muscle, there now stand two forces beyond Trump’s control: China, which has matured into an economic giant strong enough to resist U.S. leverage, and the American people themselves, who are openly challenging what they see as his king-like behavior. To this must be added a third failure closer to home—his inability to bring Congress into agreement, leaving the federal government paralyzed in a costly shutdown. Together, these three fronts expose the fragility of Trump’s leadership and the strain on America’s global standing.
For decades, Washington relied on leverage to bend others to its will. Yet China, over years of patient strategy, has taken its fate into its own hands. It has grown economically, financially, and industrially so strong that America can no longer dictate terms. Any attempt to coerce Beijing now risks countermeasures with devastating consequences for U.S. industry and commerce. The clearest example lies in rare earth minerals and magnets, critical to modern technology, where China holds near total dominance. Nearly 70% of global rare earth mining and over 85% of refining is controlled by Beijing, a chokehold over the materials that power smartphones, electric cars, wind turbines, and advanced weapons systems. When Beijing tightened its grip on exports, the United States was brought to its knees. Without these inputs, the American defense and tech industries risk collapse. Trump’s response has been to consider imposing another one-hundred percent tariff on Chinese goods—on top of the $361 billion in Chinese imports already tariffed since 2018—but Beijing has already diversified away from dependency on the American market. What once was a weapon of leverage for Washington is now a hollow threat.
China’s leverage extends far beyond minerals. It holds over $775 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, the largest foreign holder after Japan, and can disrupt the global currency balance by offloading them. It has built infrastructure and currency swap agreements across the Belt and Road Initiative, encompassing more than 150 countries and covering two-thirds of the world’s population, allowing trade in national currencies that bypass the dollar altogether. It possesses the capacity to redirect exports to other markets: in 2024, ASEAN overtook the U.S. as China’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade worth more than $950 billion, compared to just $575 billion with the United States. By contrast, U.S. options look weak. Threatening to halt sales of civilian aircraft parts may wound Boeing more than Beijing, since over 25% of Boeing’s orders in the last decade came from China, worth nearly $150 billion. Proclaiming America as the ultimate consumer market rings hollow when China has been cultivating alternative demand across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Trump’s bluster of tariffs and ultimatums may play well to his base, but it cannot mask the reality that the United States has lost the upper hand. Only negotiation, not confrontation, offers a way forward, but the White House seems unwilling to admit it.
If China represents Trump’s international failure, the American people have emerged as his domestic challenge. Unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, or Syria, where U.S. power crushed resistance, Trump now faces opposition at home that cannot be bombed into silence or destabilized through covert tricks. Across states and cities, nearly two million Americans have taken to the streets, protesting what they describe as Trump’s king-like conduct. They oppose his deployment of federal immigration forces and even National Guard units into states under circumstances that many legal scholars argue violate the Constitution. The Guard is meant to be mobilized for extraordinary threats, typically from foreign enemies, not to police civilians in peacetime. To many, Trump’s orders resemble the occupation of foreign lands rather than the governance of a democracy. Protesters chant that they do not want a king; they want liberty, dignity, and democracy respected. So far, their defiance has been largely peaceful, but if Trump continues his path of executive overreach, anger could boil over into violence, with consequences that would plunge the nation into crisis.
Trump has dismissed these accusations with irritation, insisting he is no monarch but a servant working day and night to restore America’s dignity and power. Yet perception matters, and his tone has only fueled resistance. Unlike pliant foreign regimes, the American people are vocal, organized, and fully aware of their rights. They are not easily subdued. If Trump cannot win their trust, his authority will be weakened from within, regardless of what strength he projects abroad. For a president who promised to put America first, alienating America itself is a damning irony. Perhaps he should take inspiration from his so-called “favorite” Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan—a man who has managed to bend under his thumb not only the National Assembly, Senate, Judiciary, and Government, but also an entire population of 250 million. If Trump truly yearns to rule unchecked, maybe a mentoring session with Munir could teach him the dark arts of silencing institutions and crushing dissent. It would be a masterclass in authoritarian success, but one that destroys democracy in the process.
On a third front, Trump has stumbled in the political heart of Washington: the relationship with Congress. It is now the twenty-second day of a government shutdown, with no bipartisan agreement in sight to reopen the federal apparatus. The impasse revolves around social spending, especially healthcare and Social Security benefits for seniors, retirees, and the disabled. Democrats insist these programs be preserved at their previous levels; Trump threatens to cut them unless his budget priorities are met. In retaliation, he has warned that Democratic initiatives and projects will be frozen entirely if they refuse to yield. This standoff has left more than 800,000 federal workers unpaid, public services crippled, and international confidence in U.S. governance shaken. The economic cost has been staggering: independent estimates suggest the shutdown has already drained nearly $3 billion per week from the U.S. economy, with projections of as much as $24 billion in losses if it lasts two months, shaving 0.2% off quarterly GDP growth. Small businesses relying on federal contracts are collapsing, loan approvals are frozen, and families living paycheck to paycheck are being forced into debt. The possibility that the shutdown could extend for months looms over the nation like a shadow, underlining not only a breakdown of negotiation but a collapse of leadership. The president, ultimately responsible for ensuring the functioning of government, has instead become the architect of its paralysis.
The damage reverberates abroad. Allies and rivals alike are watching, noting that America cannot manage its own house, let alone dictate terms to others. Each passing day without resolution chips away at U.S. credibility. For Trump, the stakes are immense. His ability to govern effectively is being judged not only by his opponents but by history itself. To fail simultaneously in managing China, his own people, and his own legislature would mark not just a troubled presidency but a broken model of leadership. Yet so far, he has responded with threats and defiance rather than compromise and wisdom.
The way forward is clear, though whether Trump will take it is uncertain. He must abandon the illusion of unilateral control and return to democratic norms. He must negotiate in good faith with Congress to restore government operations, even if it means conceding ground. He must respect the constitutional limits on deploying federal forces in states, reassuring the public that their freedoms are safe. And he must recognize that with China, confrontation is a dead end; dialogue is the only path that preserves America’s interests without triggering global economic disruption. Every war, whether military, trade, or political, ends at the negotiating table. Sooner is always better than later, for the longer conflict drags on, the greater the damage to all sides.
Trump has prided himself on being a deal-maker, but at this crossroads he has become a breaker of deals, a divider of people, and a trigger of crises. His legacy will not be judged by the force of his threats but by his capacity to resolve conflicts constructively. If he fails to change course, his presidency may be remembered not for making America great again, but for revealing just how fragile its greatness had become.
By Qamar Bashir
Press Secretary to the President (Rtd)
Former Press Minister, Embassy of Pakistan to France
Former Press Attaché to Malaysia
Former MD, SRBC | Macomb, Michigan, USA
