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Shusha Deceleration: A Balancing Act

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Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

After the victory of Azerbaijan in the 2nd war of Karabakh the South Caucasus Region (SCR) has now become new “hub” of socio-economic integration, geopolitical maneuvering and geostrategic concessions. The Republic of Azerbaijan the “Queen” of the new chess board of power politics has the comparative advantage and position of strength to deal with Armenia and other regional countries.

Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a Protocol of Alliance (PA) on June 15, 2021 which pledged to support each other in case of threat or attack by a third country. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed the agreement during a visit to the city of Shusha conquered by Azerbaijan forces during last year’s war with Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Erdogan termed it a road map that aims to increase bilateral political and military cooperation.

According to PA in case of a threat or attack on the independence or territorial integrity of any of the parties by a third state, the parties will provide the necessary assistance to each other. It envisages the opening of Zangezur corridor from Nagorno-Karabakh region to a railway line through Nakhchivan and Turkey’s eastern Kars province. Turkey will open a general consulate in Shusha to support Azerbaijan for rebuilding the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

The SD aims to facilitate cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey in the spheres of defense, economy, energy, trade, diaspora and media and other areas of mutual interest. President Ilham Aliyev said the declaration refers to the Kars Agreement that was signed a century ago, which has a great symbolic meaning for the two countries.

It has numerous befitting propositions which have national, regional as well as international repercussions. At the international level, it promotes regional cooperation, joint collaborations, political consultations, economic and trade relations, culture, education, sports, youth policy and practically all other associated areas. It highlights the importance of energy security and the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Europe.

It has also certain defense orientations. It reflects mutual military assistance which is a historic achievement. We are showing again that we will always be together. It is guarantor of independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of the internationally recognized borders, and security of each country.

It stipulates that Joint Consultations (JCs) will be conducted in case of such events,  which lays the groundwork for appropriate initiatives in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and necessary assistance to each other in accordance with the UN Charter, as well as coordinated military activities to defend against foreign threats.

The SD emphasizes for joint efforts to modernize the armed forces of the two fraternal countries, implement measures aimed at strengthening defense capabilities and military security, increase the joint capacity of the two countries’ armed forces and establish close cooperation in modern weapons and ammunition management. It seems that the Security Councils (SCs) of both countries are tasked with holding joint meetings on national security issues and discussing regional and international security developments concerning national interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan.

The iron brothers Azerbaijan and Turkey have literally conquered new castles of sovereignty, comfort, prosperity and of course national dignity. Now it is ideal time of dances, celebrations, feats, and reunions and Shusha Declaration (SD) is the vivid reflection of pure brotherhood, mutual respect, political harmony, military deterrence, peaceful co-existence and above all greater socio-economic prosperity and trans-regional connectivity.

It has actual formed a new political reality in the SCR.  It is indeed an innovative balancing act of both the sides which has certain socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic befitting ramification for both the countries.      

It has further strengthened bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey due to which it is estimated that bilateral trade between two countries may reach up to US$15 billion till 2022-2023.It has created new strategic power equation in the SCR which will now reckon with the new conditions in the region. The international theory of Middle Power has now been updated and new influential power brokers have been further consolidated in shape of new Sultans of the SCR, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

The timing and utility of the SD is significant because it apparently endorsed by the Presidents of US and France and moreover, and support of Vladimir Putin as mentioned by Turkish president during his speech. It would hopefully start transport links in the SCR. It is indeed development oriented.

It has spirits of positivity, productivity and participation in the SCR and beyond. Turkish president while in Azerbaijan thoroughly discussed chances of the opening of Zangezur corridor with Azerbaijan. Widespread deadly landmines are the real threats to the development of SCR due to which Azerbaijan, Russia, Turkey should jointly put pressure on Armenia to provide the maps of minefields. The intensive development of the region will be beneficial for Armenia as well, since communications are unblocked, new ways will open and many projects, including investment mega projects will also be started soon.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Leyla Abdullayeva termed the SD as first giant step towards greater peace and security, and new cooperation opportunities. She rebuked Armenian foreign ministry side not to use the phrase “Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression” in its ill-conceived statement It does not any agenda of hegemony rather it is the vivid reflection of regional harmony. Armenia’s foreign ministry strongly condemned Erdogan’s visit to Shusha calling it “an outright provocation against regional peace and security.

The SD signed on June 15, 2021 has further strengthened bilateral ties between Baku-Ankara and the unblocked of regional transport communications. As a true statesman and strategist Erdogan offered Armenia to be part of a six-sided regional platform which includes Russia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Iran.

Critical analysis of war threat of 2nd Karabakh reveals that Turkish Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) played an important and decisive role and provided Azerbaijan an upper hand in the last year’s war with Armenia in the Karabakh region. The drone fleet of the Azerbaijani army, which includes Bayraktar TB2 and cutting-edge Israeli-made UAVs and loitering munitions, is said to have destroyed more the 200 pieces of armor and artillery systems of Armenia during the 2nd war of Karabakh.

Turkish weapons have been widely used in modernizing the Azerbaijani army’s arsenal in recent years. According to latest official data (January 2021), between January and April 2021, Azerbaijan was the second-largest buyer of Turkish weaponry after the United States. The value of arms exports to Azerbaijan was US$117.3 million in the same period.

The Turkish President also delivered a speech to the Azerbaijani parliament and attended the Euro 2020 football match in Baku between Turkey and Wales.

Being prominent regional expert of Azerbaijan and CIS I term Shusha Deceleration as first giant step towards greater socio-economic integration and regional connectivity. It is indeed a gigantic balancing act to create new geopolitical reality in the SCR. It has created new rules of engagements in the SCR and beyond. It guarantees sovereignty and national pride of both the countries.

South Caucasus Region (SCR) has now entered into new phase of cooperation, coordination and collaboration. War is now over and some swapping of prisons and sharing of landmines have also been initiated between Azerbaijan and Armenia which has created new window of opportunity in terms of economic cooperation, food & energy security, infrastructural development  and valuable transportation corridors in the SCR.

Chances are very high that mutual cooperation would also be further strengthened between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Joint production of Azerbaijan-Turkey Drones would be initiated as soon as possible. Joint collaboration in 5th generation fighter jet would be a game changer in the SCR. To conclude, close liaison in Artificial Intelligence Technologies (AITs) would further protect socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic vested interests of both the countries. Trilateral Security Dialogue among Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey would further consolidate socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic orientations of the Shusha Deceleration in the days to come.   

Raza Bashir pays homage to Salman Afzal, his family

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DNA

OTTAWA: Pakistan High Commissioner to Canada Raza Bashir Tarar attends and addresses a prayer session held at North London Islamic Center for the martyrs of the London Ontario killings.

The HC pays homage to Salman Afzal and his family for their services to the Canadian society when they lived, and recalls a myriad of testimonials offered by people over the last one week in praise of Salman Afzaal and his family and how they excelled in community services and help to fellow human beings.

The HC also speaks about the efforts made by Pakistan High Commission to reach out to Salman Afzal family under the direct supervision of Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and his attending the funeral and many vigils and prayer sessions to express condolences and prayers to the family on behalf of the Government and the people of Pakistan.

The High Commissioner urges the Pakistani Canadians to continue to display themselves as role models of Islam, observing patience and restraint in the face of provocation and standing against hatred, racism or racial superiority not sanctioned by Islam towards fellow human beings.

He also calls for respecting the privacy of Salman Afzaal family and offers condolences to the next of kin, relatives and colleagues and prays for young Faez for his health, happiness and prosperity in years ahead.

COVID-19 positivity rate in Pakistan rises to 3%

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ISLAMABAD: The COVID-19 positivity ratio in Pakistan has surged to 3 per cent over the past 24 hours.

According to the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) data, 46 more people lost their lives, lifting the nationwide fatalities to 21,874.

The country’s caseload climbed to 945,184 after 1,119 more people tested positive for the deadly virus during this period. The new infections emerged when 37,196 tests were conducted during the said period.

It is to be noted that COVID-19 vaccination centres in Lahore and Karachi are facing a shortage of vaccine and masses are facing hardships in getting their scheduled jabs.

On Wednesday, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Health, Dr Faisal Sultan had said that 2 million doses of coronavirus vaccines are still available in the country and supply would improve further after June 20.

Speaking at a press conference in Islamabad, Faisal Sultan had said that a shortage of vaccines had been reported at some busy vaccination centres, adding that the situation will further improve after 20th June with the availability of additional doses.

“There are more than 2,000 vaccination centres in the country and the number of visitors varies. So there may be a shortage of vaccines in some centres,” he had said.

PAF chief for enhanced defence ties with Romania

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Ambassador of Romania Nicolae Goia calls on the air chief; commends professionalism of Pakistan Air Force

Staff Report

ISLAMABAD Ambassador of Romania Nicolae Goia called on Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu, Chief of the Air Staff, Pakistan Air Force in his office today.

Ambassador Nicolae Goia commended the professionalism of PAF and acknowledged its indigenization initiatives.

The Air Chief said that both the countries enjoyed cordial relations with each other.  He also extended his all out support to enhance mutual cooperation between the two Air Forces.

Various matters of mutual interest and professional support also came under discussion during the meeting.

Race for the new Foreign Secretary kick starts

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There are three top contestants for this coveted slot including Asad Majeed Pakistan’s Ambassador in the United States, Moeen ul Haq, who is currently serving as Pakistan’s ambassador to People’s Republic of China and Raza Bashir Tarar who is in Canada

Ansar Mahmood Bhatti

ISLAMABAD: The race to grab the coveted slot of Foreign Secretary of Pakistan has kick started as the potential candidates have girded up loins with each one of them trying to employ all his resources in this regard.

The incumbent Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood has completed his three years in the office but is willing to continue as the Foreign Secretary till his retirement a year later. Sources privy to this development are of the opinion that Sohail has already started lobbying to stay in the office till his retirement.

As per practice the Foreign Secretary, when completes his term, is posted as Ambassador to some important countries. In this case, the preferred choice of secretaries happens to be the United States of America. If Sohail Mahmood does not get an extension in the office, he might replace Asad Majeed as Pakistan’s ambassador to the USA.

There are three top contestants for this coveted slot including Asad Majeed Pakistan’s Ambassador in the United States, Moeen ul Haq, who is currently serving as Pakistan’s ambassador to People’s Republic of China and Raza Bashir Tarar who is in Canada these days. Ambassador Raza Bashir has already been replaced and is due to come back to the headquarters soon.

Ambassador Moeen ul Haq was recently shifted to Beijing from Paris. Sources say he needs to complete at least one year in China as Ambassador before being considered for the Foreign Secretary slot. He still has about three months to complete his one year in Beijing.

Ambassador Asad Majeed happens to be the top contender in the given circumstances as he enjoys confidence of the government and the establishment. There are some key ambassadorial positions including the USA that require a green signal from the establishment as well, keeping in view the sensitivity  and importance of the respective station. Ambassador Asad therefore appears to be an obvious choice.

As regards the professionalism and integrity of these three top officers, each one of them stands out for his illustrious diplomatic career. All of them have served in a number of key positions which means they have immense experience and exposure in the field of diplomacy.

Nevertheless there is an interesting aspect of this whole scenario as well. If the sitting Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood is allowed to continue in his office till retirement then chances of both Asad Majeed and Moeen ul Haq to become the Foreign Secretary shall be eliminated because both of them would retire from service in the meantime.

Ambassador Raza Bashir Tarar, in this scenario, shall be the sole candidate in terms of seniority. It may however be mentioned here that it is not always mandatory for the powers-that-be to appoint the senior most officer as the Foreign Secretary. In the recent past, we have seen some junior officers being elevated to this prestigious post. During PM Nawaz Shairf time when Tariq Fatemi was the Prime Minister Assistant on foreign affairs- in fact the de facto Foreign Minister – he appointed a junior officer as the Foreign Secretary. In protest, the senior officers who were bypassed preferred to leave the job instead working under a junior officer.

Sources say the possibility of appointment of a junior officer as the next Foreign Secretary is possible even now. But this practice, by and large, is not welcomed by anyone. Even the officer, who is given out of the turn promotion, does not feel comfortable in wielding his or her authority. 

US economy on path to robust recovery: Treasury Secretary

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The American economy is on a path of robust recovery, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday during testimony before the Senate Finance Committee.

“Long before a single American was infected with COVID-19, millions of people in this country were running up against a series of long-term, structural economic challenges that undermined their ability to make a good living,” she said.

Yellen listed some of the challenges, including wage inequality, declining rate of labor force participation, climate change and racial inequality.

“The private sector does not make enough of the types of investments needed to reverse them,” she said, adding that new fiscal policies, such as Biden’s budget plan, will unwind those trends.

“We need to make these investments at some point, and now is fiscally the most strategic time to make them. We expect the cost of federal debt payments will remain well below historical levels through the coming decade. We have a window to invest in ourselves,” she said.

PAK, AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS ARE DEEP ROOTED AND HISTORICAL: AMBASSADOR

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Ambassador Ali Alizada said that the President of Azerbaijan Mr. IIham Aliyev declared this year 2021 as Year of Nizami Ganjavi in Azerbaijan and naming of this “Nizami Ganjavi” Lane will be remembered as a goodwill gesture and contribution to the existing strong Pakistan-Azerbaijan fraternal relations as well as a token of regards & respects from the Citizens of City of Peshawar who are having a historical relations with Azerbaijans nation & importance in South Asia

Bureau Report

PESHAWAR, JUN 16 (DNA) – Pakistan and Azerbaijan relations are deep-rooted and historical, which are now translating into more close for socio-economic development and peoples to peoples interaction.

Azerbaijan Ambassador in Pakistan Ali Alizada was speaking at the special ceremony to naming the “Nizami Ganjavi” Lane at University Town, Peshawar-a capital city of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan this afternoon at a graceful ceremony.

Ambassador Ali Alizada said that the President of Azerbaijan Mr. IIham Aliyev declared this year 2021 as Year of Nizami Ganjavi in Azerbaijan and naming of this “Nizami Ganjavi” Lane will be remembered as a goodwill gesture and contribution to the existing strong Pakistan-Azerbaijan fraternal relations as well as a token of regards & respects from the Citizens of City of Peshawar who are having a historical relations with Azerbaijans nation & importance in South Asia.

Ambassador Ali Alizada expressed thanks to the City District Government of Peshawar (CDGP), Local Governments & Rural Development (LG&RD) Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for taking this important initiative to further strengthen the relationship and this gesture of good well is gratefully acknowledged.

He said this year we celebrate the 880th birthday of Nizami Ganjavi, the great poet, philosopher and thinker of Azerbaijan, who was born and passed away in the historical Ganja city of Azerbaijan. The thinker-poet who expressed universal ideas in his works with highly poetic competence is one the unique figures of Azerbaijan’sand world’sliterature.

The “Year of Nizami Ganjavi” declared by President of Azerbaijan is the next great contribution to the research, study and wide promotion of his unique poetry in the world.

The monuments and statues of Nizami Ganjavi have been erected in Moscow, Rome, St.Peterburg, Kyiv, Beijing, Tashkent, Chisinau. We have also magnificent mausoleum which has been built over his grave in his motherland Ganja, Azerbaijan.

The naming of the lane in the University Town of Peshawar as a –Nizami Ganjavi Lane is another token of regard to his deep legacy and the contribution from the people of Pakistan to the promotion of the great poet and philosopher.

Azerbaijan and Pakistan are bound by the relations of strong friendship and strategic partnership which reflects the will of our brotherly nations. Throughout the history our nations have communicated, worked together. We can see many signs of Pakistani culture in Azerbaijan and vice versa.

 The 14th century Multani Caravanserai in Baku is one of the testimonies showing our historical connection. The Urdu language department in Baku State University, Muhammad Iqbal research centers in Azerbaijan are another signs of Pakistani heriatge and culture in Azerbaijan. We have a lot of commons and similarities which we are also able to witness in KPK and other provinces of Pakistan.

‘I would like to thankpeople and Government of Pakistan for continued cooperation, support and interest to further expand and strengthen our relations and inaguration of Nizami Ganjavi Lane in this historical city Peshawartoday, once again proves our commitment for longlasting friendship and brotherhood.I would like specially thank the citizen of Peshawar, the City District and the Government of Peshawar for honoring the great poet, philosopher and thinker of Azerbaijan and making the great contribution to Azerbaijan-Pakistan relations’.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provincial Minister for LG&RDD Mr. Akbar Ayub Khan welcomed the Azerbaijan Ambassador Ali Alizada and on behalf of Peoples & Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province and said that as Pakistan was second Country of the World who recognize in December 1991, we value our historical relations of decades with Azerbaijan and encourage the initiatives to further strengthening these brother relations.

Recently Pakistan, Turkey & Azerbaijan join hands for the economic developmental activities which will be also fruitful and a new chapter of prosperity will be began.

Minister Akbar Ayub Khan appreciated the initiative of Peshawar City District Government and express his satisfaction on this step and said that Peshawar and other Cities of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province should have sister city relationship with major Friendly Countries and we should learn lesson from their experiences in economic development & social prosperity.

Minister Akbar Ayub Khan said Prime Minister Imran Khan & Chief Minister Mahmood Khan are keenly interested to further enhance the trade and economic relations for the bright future of the country. We should learn from each other experiences.

Earlier Azerbaijan Ambassador Mr. Ali Alizada & Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Minister LG&RDD Mr. Akbar Ayub Khan jointly inaugurated the “Nizami Ganjavi Lane” at University Town Peshawar and pray for the betterment & strengthening of Pakistan Azerbaijan relations in all walks of life.

The ceremony was also attended by senior Politician Mr. Yousaf Ayub Khan, MPA & Member Provincial Finance Commission Mr. Arshad Ayub Khan, Secretary LG&RDD Mr. Shakeel Ahmad Senior Officer of LG&RDD Mr. Saleem Khan, Mr. Khizar Hayat Khan, Mian Shafiq-ur-Rehman Secretary General PCFA Ali Nawaz Gilani apart from senior officers from Embassy of Azerbaijan in Pakistan.

Ambassador Ali Alizada also planted a tree in University Town Club as a token of remembrance and Pak Azerbaijan everlasting friendship. Souvenirs were also exchanged on the occasion.=DNA

WEBINAR ON BILATERAL INVESTMENT TREATIES WITH REFERENCE TO INVESTOR-STATE DISPUTE SETTLEMENT

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DNA

VIENNA, JUN 16 – Today, Permanent Mission of Pakistan in Vienna, United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL), Ministry of Commerce and Board of Investment Islamabad jointly arranged a webinar on bilateral investment treaty regimes with particular reference to Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). It was attended by senior officials from UNCITRAL, Ministries of Commerce and Law and Justice and Board of Investment of Pakistan as well as representatives from provincial investment departments of KP, Sindh and Baluchistan.

Ms. Anna Joubin-Bret, Secretary of UNCITRAL, expressed her readiness to share best practices and support Pakistan for improving its model bilateral investment treaty. Ms. Marianela Bruno-Pollero, Legal Officer, highlighted various elements of the UNCITRAL Transparency Standards. Ms. Corinne Montineri, Secretary of Working Group III, briefed about current work of the Working Group for improvement of ISDS mechanism to address the concerns related to lack of consistency, coherence, predictability and correctness of arbitral decisions by ISDS tribunals. Mr. David Probst, Associate Expert, highlighted the ongoing work of Working Group III about appellate mechanism for ISDS while Ms. Judith Knieper, Legal Officer, talked about reform of alternate dispute resolution mechanism.

Mr. Rifat Parvez, Executive Director General of Board of Investment briefed about investment regime and incentives for investors for investment in various sectors of Pakistan. He said that Pakistan was revising its bilateral investment treaty template and highlighted its various features for safeguarding interests of both investors and the State.

Pakistan appreciates the important work of UNCITRAL for improving legal framework for facilitation of international trade. The Mission will continue its engagement with UNCITRAL for constructively contributing in the reform process and benefit from its expertise.

Pakistan’s role is crucial amid US withdrawal from Afghanistan, says Hasina Sayyed

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DNA

ISLAMABAD, JUN 16 – Hasina Sayyed, a female entrepreneur and politician from Afghanistan, on her visit to the Institute of Regional Studies (IRS) spoke on the evolving situation in Afghanistan. While expressing her views on the prospects of peace in Afghanistan she argued that peace was achievable if the domestic, regional as well as international community took ‘collective responsibility’.  The stakeholders must not lose that opportunity to end the conflict in Afghanistan’, she stressed. 

Pakistan’s role in the evolving situation in Afghanistan is indispensable. It had been assisting Kabul in the past, but today the situation demands an enhanced collaboration with Pakistan said Ms. Sayyed. ‘We need Pakistan to pave the way for smooth elections, and convince Taliban for a settlement’, she said.

Since Afghanistan connects South Asia with Central Asia and Europe, the CPEC project for Afghanistan has gained immense importance. The success of this project, however, is depended on peace in the country. No country including Pakistan would be interested to invest in Afghanistan if violence continues, she said.

Hasina stressed that understanding today’s Afghanistan is important as we were preparing to deal with the post-US challenges in Afghanistan. Present day Afghanistan is different from the past. Ms. Hasina was critical of present Afghan leadership and was of the view that no progress can be achieved under them. The new leadership and the young generation were looking for better ties with Pakistan, she emphasized.

While concluding the talks, President IRS, Ambassador Nadeem Riyaz said that we need to invest in the people of Afghanistan. The will of Afghan people is important in any future dispensations. He argued that peace was essential in Afghanistan for the stability in the region.=DNA

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Gold prices decline by Rs 500 to Rs109,600 tola

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ISLAMABAD, Jun 16:The price of 24 karat per tola gold witnessed a decrease of Rs 500 on Wednesday and it was traded at Rs109,600 against its sale at Rs110,100, Karachi Sarafa and Jewellers Group reported.

The price of 10 gram 24 karat also decreased by Rs 429 and was traded at Rs 93,964 against its sale at Rs 94,393 whereas the prices of ten gram 22 Karat gold dipped to Rs 86,134 from Rs 86,527.

The price of per tola and ten gram silver remained stable at Rs1460 and Rs1251.71 respectively.

The price of gold in international market witnessed decrease of US $ 4 and was sold at US $1855 against its sale at US $1859.

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