Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

While addressing the international conference “Central Asia and South Asia: regional interconnectedness: Challenges and opportunities, President of Uzbekistan H.E. Shavkat Mirziyoyev pinpointed “ten initiatives” to achieve greater regional connectivity. Being prominent regional expert of Uzbekistan and CIS I term it “Ten Commandments of Modern World”.

It is indeed a “Strategic Road Map” to foster trade and commerce activities, joint ventures, mutual investments, new jobs and eradication of poverty.

It is a modern “Transportation Network Modeling and Calibration” to create modern, efficient and safe transport and logistics infrastructure in Central Asia and South Asia.

It is a “Blue Print” of socio-economic prosperity, massive industrialization, persuasion of green energies, sincere efforts of de-carbonization, formation of economic and logistic corridors, paradigm shift in trade tariffs, integrative mechanism of preferential and free trade.

It is “Bible of Commercial Diplomacy” which eschews conspiracies, conflicts and contradictions and promotes spirits of cooperation, coordination and collaboration among the main stakeholder in the region.

It is a “Das Kapital” for modern era in which rights are protected through development orientations, regulatory bodies and investments are made to bring comforts in the lives of common people.

It is a new “Magna Carta” for the 21 century in which equity of finances creates equitable business propositions and sustainable partnerships for all the regional countries.

It is an “Aurora Supercomputer” to stimulate digitalization in the region to enhance virtual connectivity and provide platform of locomotive of economic cooperation between the two regions of Central Asia and South Asia.   It is a comprehensive outline of digital transformation, techniques of survives and thrives in an era of mass extinction.

It is a new version of “Neo-Malthusian Theory” which argues that food security and sustainable development are intrinsically linked. It formulates a holistic approach by involving all main regional as well as global stakeholders to devise a joint development research to institutionalize usage and utility of advanced technologies and of course implementation of industrial cooperation.

It is a “Grand Green Book” of simulation of green development in Central Asia and South Asia which has now instrumental to human survival, productive channels, booming trade and commerce and maintenance of appropriate balance between “Divine and Development”.

It is a new “Blue Book” of tourism to promote “Sustainable Tourism Supply Chain Management System (STSCMS) between both the regions. It is a journey towards beautification of collective cultures, traditions, brands and products. It is vivid reflection of new adventures, adjoining strategies and holy policies to promote tourism in the new age of “virology” in the age of dawn of science and technology.

It is a new “Quantum Theory” of scientific discipline and development to expand scientific, cultural and humanitarian exchanges. It is also a new “Trust Receipt” of mutual trust, friendship, peace, stability and harmony in the entire region. It is new “Rethinking” of youth, nurturing, education and value of human capital among the regional countries.

It is a new “Newtonian Spirits” to promote science, technology and innovations between Central Asia and South Asia. It is of course depiction of human survival through scientific means, induction of modern and smarter technologies to accelerate spells of development in the region.

It is a new “Richer, Wiser and Happier” thoughtfulness process in the crucial decision making for the betterment of common people to achieve immense socio-economic prosperity and of course regional connectivity.

As a renowned “Strategist” President of Uzbekistan H.E. Shavkat Mirziyoyev also suggested comprehensive plans and programs to make these ten initiatives successful.

He like a “Maestro” of applied economics suggested creating “simulative” and “supportive” mechanism and conditions to foster development of economic ties and mutual investments between Central Asia and South Asia.  

As a “Practitioner of Reality” the president Mirziyoyev coined practical contribution of development orientation and institutionalization of effective means for free movement of investments, good and services through the development of advanced “Integrative Transport System (ITS)” and befitting propositions of energy infrastructure. He also used holistic approach and dissemination of “Effective Communication Theory” to translate deities and traditions of common heritage to promote spirits of cooperation in both the regions.

It is indeed a new “Grand Diagnostic Dialogue (GDD)” which would be transformed into specific programs and projects for the creation of new jobs and achieving of stability and sustainability of regional economies.

As an expert “Jurist” the President Mirziyoyev suggested to initiate joint study for the formulation and conclusion of multilateral agreement of economic cooperation among all the regional countries.

As a “Passionate Champion” of modern logistics and integrative transportation system the Uzbek president suggested to start trans-regional railway project of “Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar” and termed it real architecture of the interconnection between Central Asia and South Asia. It will full realize the transit potential of the entire region having shortest and smoothest route of regional connectivity.

Moreover, it is a time and cost effective project for transporting goods between South Asia and Europe through Central Asia and Commonwealth nations. It would be inclusive economic development project of both the regions.

Moreover, it would be revival of ancient Northern trade route of “Uttarapatha” which used to connect Indo-Gangetic Plain with the Southern territories of Eurasian continent through the historic cities of Taxila, Garndhara and Termez. Furthermore, proposed trans-regional railways project is fully in line with the goals of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

As a “Digitalized Personality” the Uzbek President proposed to develop specific measures to implement digital connectivity in diverse fields of trade, transit and border management through devising a Joint Action Strategy (JAS). 

As an experienced “Food Economist & Technologist”, President Mirziyoyev chalked out comprehensive policies to achieve the goal of optimal food security in the Central Asia and South Asia.  He proposed Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to hold a meeting of the regional agriculture ministers to develop of program to overcome serious issue of food security.

As a true “Angle” of humanity, stability, security and of course peace the President Mirziyoyev emphasized the need to consolidate efforts of anti-terrorism, extremism and transnational crime including cyberspace.

He presented Multidimensional Strategy (MS) to counter all these looming threats to human existence, prosperity and sovereignty through “Joint Anti-Drug Action Plan” with the help of UN Office on Drugs and Crime. He was of the opinion that joint efforts should be started in the fight against terrorism. He envisioned holistic approach to eradicate menace of terrorism through the help of regional experts.

As a “True Lover” and “Protectionist” of nature, environment, ecology and biodiversity the president Mirziyoyev suggested taking all possible measures to mitigate devastating effects of climate change which has already produced havocs in terms of water scarcity, air and environment pollution, soil degradation and desertification.

As a “Beautifier” of natural beauty and tourism potential the President Mirziyoyev showcased economic value of regional tourism which would be utilized in creation of new jobs, increase in revenues, GDPs, GNPs and of course grand benching mark of cultural diplomacy in the days to come.

As a “Guru” of international marketing and advertising the President Mirziyoyev pinpointed structural reforms and integrative steps for the development of regional tourism in terms of recognizable travel brands with elements of attractiveness and affordability, and safe routes in the ongoing human sage of COVID-19 with various variants. He suggested developing a comprehensive popular program with the framework of the World Tourism Organization for Central Asia and South Asia Regions.

As an “Applied Scientist” the President Mirziyoyev rightly emphasized to follow scientific ways and means for cultural and humanitarian exchanges and cooperation for achieving ultimate goal of trustworthy friendship among all the regional countries.

He suggested initiating joint programs for regional education, science, culture and sports by involving and participation of young generations. He proposed formation of a permanent Youth Council of both the regions.

As a “True Stimulator” of science and technological innovation the President Mirziyoyev highlighted strategic importance of science, technology and innovations. In this connection the president of Uzbekistan proposed “Facilitated Visa Regime (FVR)” for regional scientists and researchers. Online connectivity among the regional universities would also be vital for economic developed, he further added.

As a “True Champion” of “rational thinking” and “accumulate” decision making having forward looking outlook the President Mirziyoyev proposed formation of permanent expert pool of prominent scientists and researchers from all the regional countries to promote cooperation.

Fallacies of religion and wrong notions of different phobias are the potential threats to regional peace and stability that is why he strongly recommended to joint fight against terrorism, extremism and radicalization through tolerance, education and scientific thinking.

To conclude rapidly changing socio-economic orientations, geopolitical conditionality and last but not geo-political compulsions there is an urgent need to start new journey towards greater regional cooperation, coordination, collaboration and connectivity in which President of Uzbekistan H.E. Shavkat Mirziyoyev ten initiatives may be act as “ten commandments” of modern world. 

The Taliban have positioned themselves as solely concerned with creating an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan and having no inclination to operate beyond the borders of the Central Asian state, but have been consistent in their refusal to expel Al Qaeda, even if the group is a shadow of what it was when it launched the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington 20 years ago

Dr. James M. Dorsey

Taliban advances in Afghanistan shift the Central Asian playing field on which China, India and the United States compete with rival infrastructure-driven approaches. At first glance, a Taliban takeover of Kabul would give China a 2:0 advantage against the US and India, but that could prove to be a shaky head start.

The potential fall of the US-backed Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani will shelve if not kill Indian support for the Iranian port of Chabahar that was intended to facilitate Indian trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.

Chabahar was also viewed by India as a counterweight to the Chinese-supported Pakistani port of Gwadar, a crown jewel of the People’s Republic’s transportation, telecommunications and energy-driven Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The United States facilitated Indian investment in Chabahar by exempting the port from harsh US sanctions against Iran. The exemption was intended to “support the reconstruction and development of Afghanistan.”

However, with negotiations with Iran about a revival of the 2015 international nuclear agreement stalled, the United States announced in July together with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan plans to create a platform that would foster regional trade, business ties and connectivity.

The connectivity end of the plan resembled an effort to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face. It would have circumvented Iran and weakened Chabahar but potentially strengthened China’s Gwadar alongside the port of Karachi.

That has become a moot point with the plans certain to be shelved as the Taliban move to take over Kabul and form a government that would be denied recognition by at least the democratic parts of the international community.

Like other Afghan neighbors, neither Pakistan nor Uzbekistan or for that matter China are likely to join a boycott of the Taliban. On the contrary, China last month made a point of giving a visiting Taliban delegation a warm welcome.

Recognition by Iran, Central Asian states and China of a Taliban government is however unlikely to be enough to salvage the Chabahar project. “Changed circumstances and alternative connectivity routes are being conjured up by other countries to make Chabahar irrelevant,”.

The Taliban have sought to reassure China, Iran, Uzbekistan and other Afghan neighbors that they will not allow Afghanistan to become an operational base for jihadist groups, including Al Qaeda and Uighur militants of the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP).

The Taliban have positioned themselves as solely concerned with creating an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan and having no inclination to operate beyond the borders of the Central Asian state, but have been consistent in their refusal to expel Al Qaeda, even if the group is a shadow of what it was when it launched the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington 20 years ago.

The TIP has occasionally issued videos documenting its presence in Afghanistan but has, by and large, kept a low profile in the country and refrained from attacking Chinese targets in Afghanistan or across the border in Xinjiang.

As a result, the Taliban reassurance was insufficient to stop China from repeatedly advising its citizens to leave Afghanistan as soon as possible.

“Currently, the security situation in Afghanistan has further deteriorated … If Chinese citizens insist on staying in Afghanistan, they will face extremely high-security risks, and all the consequences will be borne by themselves,” the Chinese foreign ministry said.

The fallout of the Taliban’s sweep across Afghanistan, despite the group’s assurances, is likely to affect China beyond Afghan borders, perhaps no more so than in Pakistan, a major focus of the People’s Republic’s single largest Belt-and Road-related investment.

The investment has made China a target for attacks by militants primarily Baloch nationalists. However, the killing in July of nine Chinese nationals in an explosion on a bus transporting Chinese workers to the construction site of a dam in the northern mountains of Pakistan, a region more prone to attacks by religious militants, raises the specter of jihadists also targeting China. It was the highest loss of life of Chinese citizens in recent years in Pakistan.

The attack occurred amid fears that the Taliban will bolster ultra-conservative religious sentiment in Pakistan that celebrates the group as heroes whose success enhances the chances for austere religious rule in the world’s second-most populous Muslim-majority state.

“Our jihadis will be emboldened. They will say that ‘if America can be beaten, what is the Pakistan army to stand in our way?’” said a senior Pakistani official.

Indicating Chinese concern, China has delayed the signing of a framework agreement on industrial cooperation that would have accelerated the implementation of projects that are part of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Said scholar Kamran Bokhari: “Regime change is a terribly messy process. Weak regimes can be toppled; replacing them is the hard part. It is only a matter of time before the Afghan state collapses, unleashing chaos that will spill beyond its borders. All of Afghanistan’s neighbors will be affected to varying degrees, but Pakistan and China have the most to lose.”

The demise of Chabahar and/or the targeting by the Taliban of Hazara Shiites in Afghanistan could potentially turn Iran into a significant loser too.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar and a senior fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute