Karachi, NOV 15 /DNA/ – Future warfare would see Artificial Intelligence as the third revolution in warfare being utilized with minimal adverse impact. This augments the implications of AI on national security, military tactics, and defence strategies as almost 70-75% of global defence leaders believe that AI will be very or extremely important to organizational strategies and in bearing outcomes.

This was highlighted during the first day of a seminar titled ‘Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Defence Market; A Paradigm Shift in Military Strategy and National Security’, which was organized at Expo Centre, Karachi, on November 15, 2022, as part of IDEAS 2022 in joint-collaboration of Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad, and Defence Export Promotion Organization (DEPO).

The seminar, which was moderated by Prof. Dr. Syed Irfan Hyder, vice chancellor, Ziauddin University, was graced as Chief Guest by Lt Gen (Retd) Humayun Aziz, HI (M), secretary, Ministry of Defence Production, and addressed by Major General Muhammad Arif Malik, HI (M), DG DEPO, Lars G. A. Hilse, a German scholar and global thought leader in the field of digital strategy and cyber security, Dr. Sigit Jarot, CEO Cloudtech and Head of Infrastructure, MASTEL, Indonesia, Dr. Yasar Ayaz, CPD/Chairman, National Center of Artificial Intelligence (NCAI), and Dr. Jawwad Shamsi, dean, FAST NUCES Faculty of Computer.

The event was attended by various foreign dignitaries, high-rank government officials, ministries, academics, think tanks, representatives from public and private industries, and law experts.

With Artificial Intelligence having different dimensions of application, Lt Gen (Retd) Humayun Aziz termed it as an aspirational goal, a game changer, and a transformative national security technology that is opening up several prospects of military success as well as threats to defense and security. Hence, demanding a holistic approach to better cater to prospects and curtail emerging menaces.

He stated that three major areas of national security which would see a significant impact from the increasing developments in AI are military superiority, information superiority, and economic superiority through data, data-driven technologies, machine learning technology, network technologies, and cyber defense technology, etc.

Regarding the future dynamics of the international security environment and strategic shifts in defense, he noted that these are dependent on AI and AI-driven applications, which have now become key pillars of states. However, these developments would not curtail the significance and reliance on conventional capabilities in mitigating and combating threats.

He further maintained that the transformation of warfare through AI, along with biotech, strategic weaponry, and computers, would increase armed forces’ readiness and bring a paradigm shift in modern warfare and the security apparatus of states.
Highlighting the globalization of weapon systems and advancements in AI, Maj Gen Arif emphasized that new technologies have ushered increased opportunities, demands, and investments in the development of AI-integrated systems in the defense and security domain.

He advocated for building awareness for the use of AI and AI research in the fields of intelligence collection and analysis, logistics, robotics, cyber missions, information operations, C2, and autonomous weaponry for better incorporation of AI into real-world military operations globally.

Emphasizing the importance of investing in AI, he underlined that AI is changing not only the living styles, employment performances, people-to-people interaction, learning, and decision-making of people as well as the operational and business environment of organizations but also military tactics and warfare.

In this regard, significant capitalization of AI has been seen in hybrid, cyber, and network-centric warfare. As put by Lars Hilse, the current AI applications in hybrid warfare through fake news, misinformation, disinformation, cyber-physical attacks on civilian infrastructure, opinion manipulation, and adversarial reconnaissance and intelligence gathering triggers civil unrest and have serious security and economic implications.

Similar is the case with the use of AI in cyber security which demands a defense approach and practical steps towards a robust security framework based on identification and prioritization of critical infrastructure, efficient legislature, regular stress and penetration tests, continuous vulnerability testing (CVT), and multi-layered neural networks, he outlined.

5G Network Centric Warfare (NCW), as underlined by Sigit Jarot, is increasingly becoming relevant as information and AI-driven technologies are employed to gain information advantage to convert it to a competitive advantage.

He further noted that future battles would entail the weaponization of 5G; therefore, it calls for an approach to study and develop 5G for future military endeavors including 5G military decision-making, 5G smart warehousing, 5G distributed C2, 5G AR/VR, 5G for tactical millimeter wave networks, 5G non-terrestrial networks, proximity services (ProSe), and 5G geo-intelligence.

Apart from these applications, 5G is also going to make a mark in the defense market so much so that it is expected to reach $76, 014.64 million by 2030 with a compound annual growth rate of 67.7% (2021-2030).

A baby born somewhere on Tuesday will be the world’s eight billionth person, according to a projection by the United Nations.

“The milestone is an occasion to celebrate diversity and advancements while considering humanity’s shared responsibility for the planet,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a statement.

The UN attributes the growth to human development, with people living longer thanks to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine.

It is also the result of higher fertility rates, particularly in the world’s poorest countries — most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa — putting their development goals at risk.

How many is too many?

Population growth has also magnified the environmental impacts of economic development.

But while some worry that eight billion humans is too many for planet Earth, most experts say the bigger problem is the overconsumption of resources by the wealthiest people.

“Some express concerns that our world is overpopulated,” said United Nations Population Fund chief Natalia Kanem.

“I am here to say clearly that the sheer number of human lives is not a cause for fear.”

Joel Cohen of Rockefeller University’s Laboratory of Populations told AFP the question of how many people Earth can support has two sides: natural limits and human choices.

Our choices result in humans consuming far more biological resources, such as forests and land, than the planet can regenerate each year.

The overconsumption of fossil fuels, for example, leads to more carbon dioxide emissions, responsible for global warming.

“We are stupid. We lacked foresight. We are greedy. We don’t use the information we have. That’s where the choices and the problems lie,” said Cohen.

However, he rejects the idea that humans are a curse on the planet, saying people should be given better choices.

Slowing growth

The current population is more than three times higher than the 2.5 billion global headcount in 1950.

However, after a peak in the early 1960s, the world’s population growth rate has decelerated dramatically, Rachel Snow of the UN Population Fund told AFP.

Annual growth has fallen from a high of 2.1 per cent between 1962 and 1965 to below 1pc in 2020.

That could potentially fall further to around 0.5pc by 2050 due to a continued decline in fertility rates, the United Nations projects.

The UN projects the population to continue growing to about 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050, and peaking around 10.4 billion in the 2080s.

Other groups have, however, calculated different figures.

The US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) estimated in a 2020 study that the global population would max out by 2064, without ever reaching 10 billion, and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100.

Black Death

Since the emergence of the first humans in Africa over two million years ago the world’s population has ballooned, with only fleeting pauses to the increasing number of people sharing Earth.

Our ancestors were hunter-gatherers, who had few children compared to later settled populations in order to maintain their nomadic lifestyle.

The introduction of agriculture in the Neolithic era, around 10,000 BC, brought the first known major population leap.

With agriculture came sedentarisation and the ability to store food, which caused birth rates to soar.

From around six million in 10,000 BC, the global population leapt to 100 million in 2,000 BC and then to 250 million in the first century AD, according to the French Institute for Demographic Studies.

As a result of the Black Death, the human population dropped between 1300 and 1400, from 429 to 374 million.

Other events, like the Plague of Justinian, which hit the Mediterranean over two centuries from 541-767, and the wars of the early Middle Ages in western Europe, also caused temporary dips in the number of humans on Earth.

From the 19th century on, the population began to explode, due largely to the development of modern medicine and the industrialisation of agriculture, which boosted global food supplies.

Since 1800, the world’s population has jumped eight-fold, from an estimated one billion to eight billion.

The development of vaccines was key, with the smallpox jab particularly helping zap one of history’s biggest killers.

• Zelenskiy says war should end under “UN Charter, int’l law”.
• Biden, Xi Jinping hold three-hour long bilateral meeting.
• Biden will be “unapologetic” in his defence of Ukraine: US officials. 

NUSA DUA, INDONESIA: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told leaders of the world’s wealthiest nations on Tuesday that now was the time to stop Russia’s war in his country under a peace plan he has proposed.

He spoke by video link to leaders of the Group of 20 (G20) nations who have gathered for a summit on the Indonesian island of Bali that is overshadowed by the war in Ukraine and worries over global inflation, food and energy security.

Zelenskiy said the war should be ended “justly and on the basis of the UN Charter and international law”.

He called for restoring “radiation safety” with regard to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, introducing price restrictions on Russian energy resources, and expanding a grain export initiative. He also called for all Ukrainian prisoners to be released.

“Please choose your path for leadership – and together we will surely implement the peace formula,” he said.

The summit opened earlier in the day with a plea by Indonesian President Joko Widodo for unity and concrete action to mend the global economy despite deep rifts over the war.

“We have no other option, collaboration is needed to save the world,” he said. “G20 must be the catalyst for inclusive economic recovery. We should not divide the world into parts. We must not allow the world to fall into another cold war.”

The G20, which includes countries ranging from Brazil to India, Saudi Arabia and Germany, accounts for more than 80% of the world’s gross domestic product, 75% of international trade and 60% of its population.

A positive sign on the eve of the summit was a three-hour bilateral meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in which the two leaders pledged more frequent communications despite many differences.

Monday’s meeting was the first time the two had met in person since Biden became president and the talks appeared to signal an improvement in relations between the superpowers after a downward spiral in recent months.

The G20 summit is being held for the first time since Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow has described as a “special military operation”.

The war has triggered calls by some Western leaders for a boycott of the summit and for the withdrawal of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation.

Indonesia resisted, refusing to withdraw Putin’s invitation, and also rejecting what Indonesian sources say has been pressure from G7 nations to condemn Russia at the summit this week.

Russia has said Putin was too busy to attend the summit with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov taking his place. Lavrov dismissed a news agency report on Monday that he had been taken to hospital in Bali with a heart condition and was present at the meeting.

However it was not clear if he remained in the room while Zelenskiy made his address.

Joint statement in the works 

A joint G20 communique, which would need to be agreed by all parties, appears unlikely, with Indonesia instead pushing for a leaders’ declaration, diplomatic sources say.

However, European Council President Charles Michel said there was an agreement among officials on a text communique on Monday evening, which he described as “positive”.

G20 leaders will denounce the use of, or any threat to use, nuclear weapons, according to an early draft seen by Reuters.

However, such a communique would need to be confirmed by the leaders.

The G20 ministers’ gatherings have failed to produce joint communiques due to disagreement between Russia and other members on language, including on how to describe the war in Ukraine.

Biden will be “unapologetic” in his defence of Ukraine, US officials have said.

“I won’t get ahead of the final negotiations but the G20 will make clear that Russia’s war is wreaking havoc for people everywhere and for the global economy as a whole,” said one official, who spoke about the US view on the summit on condition of anonymity.

But Xi and Putin have grown increasingly close in recent years, and reaffirmed their partnership just days before Russia invaded Ukraine. Nevertheless China has been careful not to provide any direct material support that could trigger Western sanctions against it.

On Tuesday, Xi told French President Emmanuel Macron during a bilateral meeting that China advocated a ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks, Chinese state media reported.

Biden and Xi “underscored their opposition to the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine” during their meeting, according to a White House statement. A statement from the Chinese foreign minister said Xi told Biden nuclear weapons cannot be used and nuclear wars cannot be fought.The West has accused Russia of making irresponsible statements on the possible use of nuclear weapons since its February invasion of Ukraine. Russia has in turn accused the West of “provocative” nuclear rhetoric.

On the sidelines of the summit, many of the leaders will hold bilateral talks, including several of them meeting Xi, who is making only his second visit overseas since the start of the pandemic.

After the meeting with Macron, Xi is scheduled to hold talks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and later with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as China tries to reduce frictions with the United States and its allies.

“It is not decisive but an important step towards trying to reduce disagreements,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University.