8 November is celebrated as Victory Day in the Republic of Azerbaijan every year. 3 years ago, Azerbaijan liberated its territories from Armenian occupation and restored its territorial integrity.

Almost 30 years ago, Armenia occupied 20% of Azerbaijani lands by committing war crimes in the territories of Azerbaijan. Armenia committed the Khojaly Genocide in 1992, killing 613 innocent civilians, including 106 women and 63 children. They carried out ethnic cleansing against the Azerbaijani population in the occupied territories. All Azerbaijanis have been forcibly expelled from occupied territories. In 1993, the United Nations Security Council adopted 4 resolutions demanding immediate and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian troops from the territory of Azerbaijan.Other international organizations, such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Non-Alignment Movement, OSCE, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and the European Parliament adopted similar decisions and resolutions. Armenia did not implement the resolutions of the UNSC and other international organizations. Azerbaijan tried to resolve the Karabakh conflict through negotiations but Armenia always ignored it and tried to keep the status quo. Armenia even regularly committed military provocations during the occupation times. In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a counter-offensive in response to Armenia’s yet another large-scale military attack on Azerbaijani Army positions and civilian settlements. At the end of the 44-day, under the leadership ofPresident Ilham Aliyev, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijanliberated its territories from Armenian occupation. Azerbaijan implemented UN Security Council resolutions itself by liberating its occupied territories.During the Armenian occupation, Azerbaijani cities and villages were razed to the ground. All cultural and religious monuments were destroyed, mosques were desecrated and looted. Armenians turned mosques into pigsties during the occupation.Hundreds of thousands of mines and booby traps have been planted across Azerbaijan’s territory.Even after the war, Armenia did not stop its heinous military provocations that caused the loss of civilians and military personnel in the liberated territories of Azerbaijan. In this regard, the Azerbaijan Army launched local anti-terrorist measures to ensure the provisions of the Joint Trilateral Statement signed on November 10, 2020, to prevent large-scale provocations committed in the Karabakh economic region, to disarm and withdraw the Armenian armed forces formations from Azerbaijani territories, to neutralize their military infrastructure, to ensure safety of the civilian population returning to the territories liberated from occupation, safety of the civilian workers involved in the reconstruction work, the servicemen and to restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan.Right after the liberation, Azerbaijan started massive reconstruction and restoration works in the liberated areas by allocating more than 7 billion USD so far. Great Return has already been started by the Azerbaijani Government. Many former Azerbaijani IDPs have returned to the Fuzuli, Zangilan, and Lachin. International Airports namely Fuzuli and Zangilan were built, and Lachin International Airport is underway.It should be noted that Pakistan did not establish diplomatic relations with Armenia because of occupation. Pakistan has always supported Azerbaijan morally and diplomatically during the Armenian occupation and 44 days of the Patriotic War of 2020. It is no coincidence that the Pakistani flag is waved along with the Azerbaijani and Turkish flags in Azerbaijan by the common people in this country as a sign of respect and gratitude to the Pakistani brothers and sisters.

Qamar Bashir

Press Secretary to the President (Rtd) | Former Press Minister at Embassy of Pakistan to France | Former MD, SRBC

The escalating threat of terrorism and extremism is deeply troubling, especially given the mounting toll on the lives of our courageous soldiers. This concerning trend has been particularly pronounced since 2021, aligning with the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan. It’s important to note that while global terrorism incidents have been decreasing since 2007, the situation in our region has taken a disconcerting turn.

In the year 2023, Pakistan found itself ranked 4th on the Global Terrorism Index with a score of 8.11. This ranking represented a two-notch increase from 2022 when the score stood at 8.4 out of 10, placing Pakistan as the sixth most terrorism-affected country in the world. During 2022 in Pakistan, there were 648 recorded terrorist attacks, resulting in 1,058 fatalities, 602 injuries, and 13 hostages. The economic toll of terrorism in Pakistan was estimated at a staggering $10.6 billion for the year 2022. This figure is nearly nine times higher than the terrorism-related deaths in 2020, a concerning contrast even when compared to Afghanistan, where terrorism incidents dropped by 75%, and fatalities decreased by 58%.

The Western world, including the USA, has witnessed a consistent decrease in the number of terrorist attacks since 2017. In the west, for instance, only forty attacks were recorded in 2022, representing a significant 27% decrease compared to the 55 attacks reported in 2021.

The Global Terrorism Index reports 130 terrorist attacks originating from Afghanistan into Pakistan during 2022. Among these attacks, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged as the most active terrorist group, responsible for 63 incidents. Other groups contributing to the attacks include the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA).

Of great concern is the troubling ratio of security personnel martyred versus terrorists killed. According to the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) for 2023, the global average of terrorists killed per security personnel killed in 2022 stood at 1.19. This signifies that for every security personnel lost, an average of 1.19 terrorists were neutralized. In Pakistan, however, the average ratio in 2022 was notably lower, at 0.67. This implies that for every security personnel lost, only 0.67 terrorists were eliminated.

The high rate of casualties among security personnel compared to terrorists killed has profound implications for the nation. It jeopardizes security and stability, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty that can deter economic development, foreign investment, and social cohesion. Moreover, it has a psychological impact on the population, eroding trust in the government’s ability to provide safety and security, which, in turn, can undermine the overall well-being of the nation.

For the armed forces, continuous and high casualties pose operational challenges and strain their ability to counter terrorist threats effectively. Beyond the strategic implications, it takes a toll on the morale and motivation of military personnel. Witnessing a significant number of colleagues fall in the line of duty can be demoralizing and affect their commitment and readiness.

The families of martyred security personnel bear an immeasurable emotional burden. They endure the grief and loss of loved ones who made the ultimate sacrifice for the nation. The economic hardship resulting from the loss of a breadwinner and the long-lasting psychological trauma further compound their suffering.

The perception of a nation facing a high level of security risks can deter tourists. An unstable security situation can result in travel advisories and warnings, causing a decline in tourism. The negative impact on tourism can lead to a loss of revenue, jobs, and opportunities for local businesses.

A security situation in a country may erode investor confidence, leading to a reluctance to commit capital to the country. As a result, potential investments may be delayed or redirected to more stable regions.

High security risks may deter foreign businesses from engaging in trade partnerships with Pakistani companies, affecting the flow of goods and potentially impacting the country’s trade balance. It may also affect the willingness of companies to establish or expand their operations in Pakistan. This, in turn, could impede economic growth and job creation.

Regrettably, in Pakistan, there exists a prevalent perception that the sole responsibility for countering terrorism rests upon the shoulders of the armed forces.

Adding to this issue, the armed forces, weary of relentless political disputes and unwarranted attempts by various political factions to co-opt their support, have come to believe that political forces may not possess the requisite competence to handle sensitive or critical responsibilities.

This predicament has inadvertently pushed the armed forces into domains such as politics, internal law and order, and even diplomatic matters.

The need of the hour is for politicians, intellectuals, opinion-makers, and celebrities to transcend their parochial political rivalries and demonstrate a genuine commitment to addressing critical issues that threaten the very existence of our nation.

They must embrace the responsibilities vested in them by the constitution and laws of our land and release the armed forces from duties that have been shouldered due to political incompetence, incapacity, and inertia.

It is incumbent on the politician and civil society to begin by comprehending the underlying causes of both domestic and cross-border terrorism followed by devising a comprehensive national strategy to effectively tackle and counteract the primary factors that fuel domestic and cross border forms of terrorism, with the ultimate goal of minimizing the casualties suffered by our security personnel and innocent civilians.

Unifying all political parties in the fight against domestic and cross-border terrorism is a formidable task but an imperative one. National security dialogues must be initiated, providing a platform for representatives from diverse parties to engage in regular discussions centered on the shared objective of countering terrorism.

Bipartisan oversight committees within the legislature can play a critical role in monitoring and evaluating the government’s counterterrorism efforts, ensuring transparency and accountability in policy making.

Cross-party conferences and workshops should facilitate dialogue among political leaders from different spectrums, encouraging an open exchange of ideas and experiences regarding counterterrorism strategies and challenges.

The media’s role in raising public awareness about the necessity of a unified stance against terrorism cannot be overstated. Engaging political parties in policy formulation and promoting transparency through regular briefings build trust and consensus.

Political parties should be urged to prioritize national security over partisan interests, emphasizing the collective threat that terrorism poses. Joint statements and declarations condemning terrorism and a commitment to combating it can send a powerful message.

Crisis management protocols that involve political parties ensure swift coordination during critical situations. Ultimately, unity against terrorism necessitates a long-term commitment, recognizing that the fight against terrorism is an enduring effort that demands sustained cooperation among political parties.

In this regard, bringing together the government, political, civil society, intellectuals, opinion makers, artists, celebrities, and religious figures to address domestic terrorism’s root causes and security concerns is a formidable but essential endeavor.

This can be achieved through the establishment of a National Task Force, comprising diverse representatives, entrusted with a comprehensive mandate to tackle this pressing issue.

Armed forces should also take a deeper look into the reasons and causes of high numbers of martyrdom of brave security personnel during counter terrorism operations and should set in place a comprehensive mechanism to minimize casualties.

First and foremost, an unrelenting focus on advanced training and skill development is essential. Specialized training in counterterrorism tactics, intelligence gathering, and urban warfare is pivotal to equipping security personnel with the tools they need to succeed. Promoting special forces training further enhances precision and minimizes collateral damage during operations.

The effectiveness of these agencies also hinges on improved intelligence sharing and coordination. A seamless partnership between law enforcement, military units, and intelligence agencies, bolstered by international cooperation, is paramount.

Embracing technological advancements, such as surveillance drones, night-vision equipment, and artificial intelligence, is key to gaining a tactical advantage and thwarting threats.

Simultaneously, community engagement strategies that foster trust and collaboration with local populations and the development of community policing programs strengthen the security apparatus.

 International collaboration and public support are also integral components of this multifaceted approach. Together, these measures work in concert to create a safer environment, strengthen community trust, and ensure the safety of both security personnel and civilians.

In conclusion, the urgent need to achieve a unified stand by all political parties to counter domestic and cross-border terrorism cannot be overstated. The pressing challenge lies not only in addressing the shared threat of terrorism but also in minimizing the tragic casualties suffered by our dedicated armed forces.

It demands a steadfast commitment to national security, transparency, and prioritizing the well-being of citizens over partisan interests. Building consensus among diverse political leaders is not just a political imperative; it is a moral obligation in the relentless battle against the scourge of terrorism.

In the face of this common and immediate threat, a united front is not only our best defense; it is our resolute stand for the safety, security, and unity of the entire nation, while safeguarding the lives of those who protect us.

Dr. Muhammad Akram ZaheerThe world’s political system change over time is a bit like how living things grow and develop. It is a complicated system with different parts that work together. Sometimes, there’s an imbalance in power between different parts of the world, like big countries having more power than others. When power is spread out more evenly in the world, the system can switch big changes for better. The system needs change to keep growing and develop. As it changes, it creates new parts. These new parts make the system work better because they become really good at what they do. One interesting example of this is the Gateway region. Eastern Europe is becoming a place that connects different parts of the world. In the future, the Middle East might also become a Gateway. And in the next few decades, about thirty more Gateway states might appear. These are small countries that will break away from bigger ones to help the world system connect and work together. These gateways help the system to adapt change, interplay and relationship among countries.Today geopolitical tensions have arisen which depend on a complex interplay of different factors. Diplomacy, conflict resolution and international cooperation play important roles in managing and reducing these tensions. Currently, the United States holds the position of the world’s sole superpower. Over the next decades, the country will adopt new strategies to maintain affordable electricity. This strategy bears similarities to isolationism, as the United States will refrain from significant involvement in regional military conflicts. Instead, it will provide support to its allies through supplies, training and limited airpower, opting for a more indirect approach to addressing regional issues in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. This strategic shift is expected to help the United States maintain its global hegemony. In Europe, the European Union (EU) may undergo dissolution or redefinition as a smaller trading zone covering a reduced portion of the continent. The current free trade structure appears unsustainable due to member states, particularly Germany, becoming overly reliant on exports. This dependence leaves their economies highly susceptible to fluctuations in demand beyond their borders. Germany may experience an economic downturn due to inevitable export market fluctuations, leading to its diminished influence in Europe by 2040. This decline may open up opportunities for Central Europe, notably Poland, to become a more significant regional power. Russia will continue to grapple with the repercussions of relatively low oil prices. The income derived from this sector has been essential for maintaining internal stability. With a significant reduction in this income, Russia may either transform into a confederation or experience separatist movements by 2040, raising important questions regarding the future of its nuclear arsenal. In Asia, as China’s competitiveness in export markets wanes, high unemployment will become a major concern for the Chinese government. To prevent an economic downturn, the government may seek to consolidate its power and embrace authoritarian measures. Nevertheless, China’s diverse regional setting will present challenges to such centralized control. Consequently, by 2040, China may experience a return to regionalism marked by a degree of chaos. As China weakens, a power vacuum in East Asia may emerge, which Japan is well-positioned to fill, given its robust economy and significant military capabilities? In the Middle East, it is difficult to foresee an end to or effective control of Islamic extremism. Instead, it may continue to expand its influence and territory. Turkey and Iran are the only regional actors with the potential to counter these extremist groups, but Iran may not take any such action. Given the ambitions of these extremist groups to reinstate the caliphate, Turkey may find itself compelled to intervene militarily to safeguard its borders. This military and economic assertion by Turkey may lead to a resurgence of a regional power reminiscent of the Ottoman Empire, positioning Turkey as the dominant regional force by 2040.The future geopolitical environment is marked by a complex interplay of factors that will shape global dynamics over the next decades. The United States, as the current sole global power, is poised to adopt a new strategy resembling isolationism to maintain its dominance. Europe faces potential challenges as the European Union may redefine itself, while Germany’s economic vulnerability could shift the balance of power in the region. In Russia, weakened oil prices could lead to internal fragmentation, raising concerns about the future of its nuclear arsenal. In Asia, China’s economic decline may usher in a return to regionalism and give rise to Japan as a leading power. Meanwhile, the Middle East continues to grapple with the persistence and expansion of Islamic extremism, with Turkey potentially reasserting itself as a dominant regional force. The evolving geopolitical landscape will demand careful diplomacy, conflict resolution, and international cooperation to address these emerging trends and strains in the years to come. The dominant theme can be see playing out over the course of the next decades is increasing disarray in Europe and Asia. It is expected the prolong stability in North American with U.S. rivals working to increase their footholds in Latin America. Despite the growing instability in Eurasia, also expect to see three regional powers emerge: Japan, Turkey and Poland. These countries will be outliers in an otherwise fragmented Eastern Hemisphere.The changing global geopolitical scene is a dynamic and ever-evolving phenomenon that presents both opportunities and challenges for nations around the world. As new powers rise and traditional alliances shift, the need for diplomacy, cooperation and adaptability becomes increasingly paramount. In this period of interconnectedness and interdependence, it is essential for nations to recognize the importance of multilateral cooperation, embrace sustainable and inclusive policies and work towards a more peaceful and prosperous global future. The complexities of the 21st century demand creative solutions and a commitment to shared values, as we navigate the shifting tides of global geopolitics in a manner that promotes peace, stability and prosperity for all.