The jury is out on the degree to which the Gaza war threatens pre-war efforts by Middle Eastern states to freeze their differences and focus on economic and security cooperation.

To be sure, the war has raised the stakes with tension mounting on the Lebanese-Israeli border and in the Red Sea.

Lebanese soldiers take a position during an anti-Israeli demonstration near the blue line area. Photo: Mohammad Zaatari/AP)
In addition, Israel’s devastating assault has complicated, if not made impossible, overt cooperation between Israel and Arab states, like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, that have diplomatic relations with the Jewish state.

The war has also delayed US-led efforts to mediate Saudi recognition of Israel.

The kingdom will need serious progress towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement entailing the creation of an independent Palestinian state to justify the establishment of diplomatic relations with the Jewish state in the wake of the Gaza war.

Even so, no Arab state has broken off relations despite mounting anti-Israeli sentiment across the region.

Egypt may be the only Arab country that can counter public pressure with some justification, arguing that its border is the major funnel for humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Egypt, one of the few countries with a direct line to Hamas, also plays a crucial role in arranging truces to facilitate prisoner exchanges and efforts to end the war.

In a twist of irony, Qatar, which has refused to formalise relations with Israel without a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has emerged, alongside Egypt, as Israel’s foremost Arab channel, particularly regarding war-related issues.

The Egyptian and Qatari efforts have not earned them unambiguous acknowledgment by Israel, members of the US Congress, and some of Qatar’s long-standing Arab critics.

Long a football, in Israeli and American politics, Qatar, home to the United States’ largest military base in the Middle East, has been taken to task for maintaining a relationship with Hamas, despite its proven utility and the fact that it enjoyed tacit Israeli and American approval.

A headline in Haaretz, Israel’s equivalent of The New York Times, read this weekend, “Netanyahu Wants to Make Qatar the Fall Guy for October 7 Massacre. Don’t Let Him.”

In November, Qatar negotiated a one-week truce during which Hamas released more than 100 hostages kidnapped during its October 7 attack on Israel in exchange for 240 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons and a limited amount of humanitarian aid.

Release Israeli hostages arrived in Ofakim in southern Israel. Photo: Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
That didn’t prevent a senior Israeli official from questioning Qatar’s role. “Right now, we need them. But when this thing passes from the world, we will settle accounts with them,” said Israeli foreign ministry deputy director general for strategic affairs Joshua Zarka.

Amid calls on Qatar to crack down on exile Hamas leaders in the Gulf state, the outside world’s link to the group, by Republican members of Congress, Qatar agreed in October with the United States to revisit its relationship with Hamas once all hostages have been released.

Last month, the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), which was founded by Yigal Carmon, a former advisor to Israel’s West Bank and Gaza occupation authority and Prime Ministers Yitzhak Shamir and Yitzhak Rabin, regurgitated documents leaked in 2019 indicating Qatari interference in the internal affairs of European, African, and Middle Eastern states.

In 1993, Mr. Carmon resigned in protest against Mr. Rabin’s signing of the Oslo accords, which laid the foundation for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. The accords created President Mahmoud Abbas’s West Bank-based Palestine Authority.

The leaks, reportedly orchestrated by the United Arab Emirates, were part of a covert information war between the Gulf state and Qatar during a 3.5-year-long Emirati-Saudi-led diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar in which both sides used leaks to portray each other negatively. The UAE and Qatar also hired intelligence companies to surveil and blacken their opponents’ reputations in Europe and the United States.

There was no obvious news peg for MEMRI to regurgitate a story with no updates that first broke three years ago and has lied dormant for the past two years as the media organisation documented in last month’s publication.

MEMRI did summarily reference Qatargate, a 2023 scandal involving European parliament members who allegedly were on the Qatari payroll, and Project Endgame, reportedly a Qatari-financed operation, involving a former CIA operative, to spy on the Gulf state’s detractors in the run-up to the 2022 World Cup.

European Parliament Vice Vice President Eva Kaili, one of the main suspects in a cash-for-influence corruption probe at the European Parliament. Photo: Jalal Morchidi/EFE via EPA
Similarly, Israel has not made Egypt happy with calls to ethnically cleanse Gaza by moving a majority of its already displaced 2.3 million population to the Sinai Peninsula.

In the latest incident, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called his weekend for Israeli re-occupation of the war-ravaged territory, arguing that “if there are 100,000 or 200,000 Arabs in Gaza and not two million, the whole discourse about the day after will be different.”

At the same, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu insisted that Israel should retain control of the Egypt-Gaza border zone.

“The Philadelphi Corridor – or to put it more correctly, the southern stoppage point (of Gaza) – must be in our hands. It must be shut. It is clear that any other arrangement would not ensure the demilitarisation that we seek,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

Egypt has rejected both suggestions.

Egypt and other Arab states fear that Israel’s conduct of the war and expansionist ambitions will further inflame public opinion at home and upset, if not deliver a death knell to a fragile apple cart designed to shelve rather than resolve regional differences that like the Palestinian issue could spin out of control.

Earlier this month, 96 per cent of Saudis polled favoured Arab states cutting all ties with Israel, while in a steep increase compared to previous surveys 40 per cent of those surveyed looked favourably at Hamas.

Eighty-seven per cent believed the war had shown “that Israel is so weak and internally divided that it can be defeated some day.”

In a blow to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s effort to project the kingdom as a moderate and tolerant Muslim state, just 5 percent agreed that Saudis should “show more respect to the world’s Jews and improve our relations with them.”

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Even so, 75 per cent supported Arabs engaging in diplomatic efforts to achieve peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

In response to hardening public sentiment, Saudi authorities sought to restrict public support for the Palestinians.

Last month’s Red Sea Film Festival in Jeddah, the biggest film event in the Middle East and North Africa, welcomed Palestinian cinema but banned the donning by attendees of keffiyahs, the chequered black-and-white scarf, which is a popular icon of Palestinian identity.

Similarly, the UAE disregarded optics when it last month put on trial on charges of terrorism 87 Emirati activists, some of whom have lingered for a decade behind bars, as it hosted what officials dubbed “the most inclusive Cop ever,” the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference.

The charges did not involve Gaza-related issues but the opening of the trial as world attention focused on Dubai sent a message to Emirati nationals and residents that the UAE would not entertain public dissent, including in connection with the war and the Palestinians.

Human rights groups and journalists reported the arrests of activists in the UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia who had expressed support for the Palestinians. Others were warned not to.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.

By  Qamar Bashir

Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Press Minister to the Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC

Amidst the thunderous echoes of Chinese success in every realm – from economic summits to cyberspace frontiers, from military might to diplomatic triumphs – President Xi during a meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held to discuss Work Relating to Foreign Affairs in Beijing (27 to 28 of Dec 2023) unleashed a new wave of global engagement. This “New Era of Diplomacy” paints China as a nation standing tall, its voice confident, its actions assertive, yet its hand outstretched in friendship. Here, aggression finds purpose, not malice; strength, not submission. No longer does China cower; it leads, not with threats, but with the quiet assurance of one who knows their place on the world stage.

At the outset, the CPC unequivocally expressed unwavering confidence in President Xi’s leadership, affirming that Chinese diplomacy will continue to draw guidance from Xi Jinping’s ‘Thought on Socialism’ with ‘Chinese Characteristics’ for the ‘New Era.’ This vision for diplomacy is rooted in fostering a global community with a shared destiny, emphasizing strategic planning aligned with evolving times, problem-oriented approaches, and a commitment to innovation. It’s a resolute stance, driven by historical responsibility and a fervent spirit of innovation, propelling major-country diplomacy with distinct Chinese attributes.

The  new vision tackles the fundamental question: “What kind of world do we build, and how?” It answers this by offering a compelling future rooted in the Chinese Communist Party’s worldview, perception of order, and values. This vision, far from opposing the common aspirations of the global community, aligns with them through ‘Major-Country Diplomacy with Chinese Characteristics for the New Era.’ This framework prioritizes a shared future, seeking to transform a conceptual proposition into a tangible reality. It aims to build an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world characterized by lasting peace, universal security, and shared prosperity. This shift from promising vision to practical action marks a crucial evolution, shifting from mere ideas to a “scientific system” that guides concrete steps towards the desired future.

Emerging from a period of remarkable economic and social development, President Xi Jinping has outlined a compelling diplomatic vision that seeks to not only secure China’s place as a leading power but also to reimagine the very architecture of the international order. This vision rests on two pillars: pragmatic inclusivity and assertive action, both aimed at forging a future that is more equitable, prosperous, and sustainable for all.

Amidst a world undergoing profound transformation and turbulence, President Xi underscored that the fundamental elements shaping world history – the trajectory of human development and progress, the complex dynamics of politics, and the aspirations for a shared global future – remain steadfast. In light of these enduring realities, he articulated the need for a new diplomatic offensive contoured to navigate the rapid advancements across diverse spheres of human endeavor. This offensive, he emphasized, must pave the way for a prosperous and inclusive future for the global community.

Rising from the ranks of global powerhouses, China seeks not a throne, but a bridge and closer ties among nations, societies, and civilizations through sharing of economic, social, and scientific advancements. “We can no longer afford the destructive dance of superpowers like the USSR and USA, whose bullying postures left behind only ruin and retaliation. Afghanistan’s embers still smolder, a stark reminder of the USSR’s fatal misstep. The World Trade Center’s hollow silhouette whispers echoes of 9/11, a testament to the fleeting nature of unchallenged might”. China’s New Era of Diplomacy is not merely a policy shift; it’s a bold invitation to rewrite the narrative of human history. It’s a world where power serves progress, not domination, where every voice joins the chorus, and where together, we rise to our shared destiny.

This framework aims to elevate China’s global influence, appeal, and power to shape the world stage on a new level. By fostering a favorable international environment, it will provide unwavering strategic support for China’s transformation into a great modern socialist country, paving the way for the comprehensive rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through its unique path to modernization.

Marking a shift from passive engagement, the new Chinese diplomacy signals a transition towards a more assertive and proactive stance on the global stage. It champions the vision of an equitable and multipolar world, advocating for inclusive economic globalization that benefits all nations. Size, they argue, should not dictate influence, and hegemonic power plays are firmly rejected. Instead, the new framework promotes genuine democratic principles in international relations, adhering strictly to the UN Charter and its universal values. Upholding core norms guiding international interactions and embracing true multilateralism are central pillars of this approach.

It rejects the pitfalls of protectionism and isolationism, advocating instead for an open and interconnected world where trade and investment flow freely across borders. This inclusive approach prioritizes the upliftment of underserved nations, recognizing that shared prosperity hinges on bridging development gaps and creating opportunities for all. China commits to playing a proactive role in this endeavor, providing targeted assistance and fostering partnerships that empower developing countries to participate actively in the global economic landscape.

However, pragmatism alone is not sufficient. China’s vision is marked by an assertive stance in defending its core interests and promoting its ideals. It firmly opposes attempts to stifle globalization or manipulate security concerns for unilateral gain. China’s voice resounds on the world stage, advocating for open dialogue and multilateral cooperation as the cornerstones of a stable and peaceful international environment. Unilateralism and power politics find no refuge here, replaced by a system based on mutual respect, adherence to international law, and the collective pursuit of common good.

It actively engages in multilateral forums, pushing for reforms that level the playing field and ensure equitable access to resources and opportunities. From tackling climate change to fostering technological advancements, China seeks to work in tandem with the international community to build a more sustainable and resilient future for all.

This vision has the potential to reshape the global order, offering a compelling alternative to the power politics and zero-sum games that have characterized international relations for decades. The success of this endeavor hinges on China’s unwavering commitment to its stated principles, its ability to translate vision into action, and its willingness to cooperate with other nations in crafting a brighter future for all.

To actualize President Xi’s visionary diplomacy, China is forging a new breed of diplomat: armed with sharpened minds honed by advanced training, empowered by nimble institutions, and driven by a data-fueled, forward-looking spirit. This reenergized vanguard will bridge the gap between vision and reality, working in symphony with other ministries to execute the CPC’s directives with unwavering precision. China’s diplomatic makeover is not mere reform; it’s a global game-changer, poised to redefine the contours of the world order with confidence and innovation. Watch this space: China’s diplomats are ready to lead.

President Xi’s bold diplomatic vision stands as a beacon illuminating a path toward a world where strength isn’t measured by dominance, but by collaboration. It beckons us to envision a future where nations, regardless of size or wealth, stand as equals on a stage of mutual respect and shared aspirations. It calls for a world where the shackles of power-based politics and unilateral actions are replaced by the symphony of unanimous decisions, resonating with the values of justice, equality, and the sanctity of every life. It’s a future where the rule of law isn’t a choice but a collective commitment, where the upliftment of human rights isn’t a debate but an inherent truth. This isn’t just a diplomatic evolution; it’s a moral imperative—a shared journey toward a world where prosperity, peace, and respect aren’t privileges but rights for every nation and every individual.