US-Iran ceasefire remains in Limbo

US-Iran ceasefire remains in Limbo

Trump claims progress on Strait of Hormuz and Erdogan warns against Israeli sabotage

Centreline Report

WASHINGTON: Washington and Tehran continue diplomatic engagement despite the lack of a formal extension to their fragile two-week ceasefire, with a senior US official confirming ongoing talks aimed at reaching a broader deal even as the initial truce window edges closer to expiration.

President Donald Trump has struck an optimistic tone, declaring that China is “very happy” with US efforts to permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz and claiming Beijing has agreed not to supply weapons to Iran in exchange. Trump described the move as benefiting China, the world, and preventing future disruptions, while vowing the situation in the critical waterway “will never happen again.” He suggested the conflict could end soon, hinting at an “amazing two days” ahead.

However, China has publicly criticized the US naval blockade of Iranian ports as “dangerous and irresponsible,” even as some Chinese-linked tankers have continued to transit the strait. Traffic remains far below pre-war levels, though US officials assert the blockade has largely halted Iranian seaborne trade, with several vessels turned back.

On the regional front, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated Wednesday that Turkey is actively working to extend the ceasefire, ease tensions, and keep negotiations alive. Erdogan specifically warned that “the Israeli government, which is known to be unhappy with the ceasefire process, must not be allowed to sabotage it,” while urging all parties to seize the current window of opportunity.

The ceasefire, originally brokered with Pakistani mediation, has held tenuously since early April but faces challenges over issues including Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, regional proxies, and control of the Hormuz waterway. Mediators are reportedly making progress toward a potential extension of at least two more weeks to allow further talks.

Oil markets have shown some easing amid diplomatic hopes, but remain volatile given the strategic importance of the strait, which handles a significant portion of global crude shipments. The situation stays highly fluid, with any incident in the Gulf or breakdown in talks risking renewed escalation.