WASHINGTON, JAN 19: The IMF upgraded its 2026 global growth forecast Monday, citing a boost from tech investments but warning that a reevaluation of AI productivity gains or renewed trade tensions could bring disruptions.
World economic growth is projected to hold steady at 3.3 percent this year, the International Monetary Fund said, raising its forecast by 0.2 percentage points from October. This would be the same pace of growth as in 2025.
But the Washington-based lender cautioned in its World Economic Outlook update that “the resilience exhibited so far is driven largely by a few sectors,” signaling vulnerability.
While the global economy appears to be “shaking off the trade and tariff disruptions of 2025,” this does not mean they had no impact, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
Instead, the challenges were offset by “tailwinds from the AI and tech investment boom,” he told reporters.
This was especially true in North America and Asia, the IMF said.
The private sector also showed adaptability in dealing with trade shocks, while fiscal and monetary support provided boosts.
Since returning to the White House last January, US President Donald Trump unleashed sweeping tariffs that hit allies and competitors alike, roiling financial markets and supply chains while causing trade tensions to rocket.
But temperatures have cooled over the year as the Trump administration struck tariff deals with several partners and crucially reached a temporary truce with the world’s second-biggest economy, China.
For now, global inflation is expected to drop from an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025 to 3.8 percent in 2026.
