What is the likely future of CPEC and Pak-China ties?

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Ansar Mahmood Bhatti

The Pakistani side often uses lofty and poetic phrases like “sweeter than honey, deeper than the sea, and taller than the Himalayas” to describe its relationship with China. However, it’s worth noting that the Chinese side has never reciprocated with such extravagant language when describing its engagement with Pakistan. Instead, the Chinese approach has consistently been pragmatic and focused on practical and economic outcomes.

China views bilateral relations largely through the lens of business and investment considerations, prioritizing the protection of its economic interests above all else. This realistic approach underscores China’s preference for clear, measurable objectives over sentiment-driven rhetoric. While this strategy has enabled China to advance its economic agenda effectively, it has also led to unintended consequences.

Some analysts argue that in its attempt to foster close ties with specific political parties or factions within Pakistan, China has inadvertently alienated others. This selective engagement risks creating a perception of favoritism, which can generate resentment among excluded political groups. Over time, such dynamics could undermine China’s broader strategic goals, as it may struggle to maintain a balanced and inclusive relationship with Pakistan’s diverse political landscape. This situation highlights the challenges inherent in China’s interest-driven foreign policy approach.

It is widely believed that China has historically shown a stronger affinity toward the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) compared to other political parties like the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). This perception is rooted in China’s consistent preference to engage with the PML-N leadership and its long-standing rapport with the Sharif family. Over the years, China’s interactions with the PML-N government have been marked by strategic collaboration and personal connections, setting them apart from its dealings with other political entities in Pakistan.

During Shehbaz Sharif’s tenure as the Chief Minister of Punjab, China frequently invited him to participate in high-level visits and bilateral meetings. These engagements, which often excluded other provincial chief ministers, highlighted China’s focus on building ties with the PML-N leadership. This pattern has continued, further reinforcing the perception of a special relationship. For instance, more recently, the current Punjab Chief Minister, Maryam Nawaz, received a special invitation to China, where she was accorded exceptional protocol. This move caused notable discontent among the chief ministers of other provinces, particularly those from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Sindh, who felt sidelined by this overt display of preference.

While it remains uncertain whether the other provincial leaders will be invited for similar engagements at a later stage, the optics of China’s selective invitations have underscored its apparent favoritism toward the PML-N. This perceived bias not only underscores China’s longstanding association with the PML-N but also highlights its emphasis on maintaining strong ties with the Sharif family, which appears to be a cornerstone of its diplomatic strategy in Pakistan.

China paid a significant price for its lopsided approach during the tenure of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government when the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) came to power in 2018. Given the strong rapport between China and the PML-N, the newly formed PTI government, led by Prime Minister Imran Khan, ordered a comprehensive audit of all Chinese projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This step marked a shift in Pakistan’s approach towards its strategic partnership with China.

The audit uncovered widespread anomalies, including instances of financial mismanagement and corruption. Responding to these revelations, the Chinese government took punitive action against the companies implicated in these irregularities, signaling its zero-tolerance stance on corruption. However, Beijing was deeply displeased with the PTI government’s decision to initiate such an audit, as it effectively brought CPEC projects to a standstill.

This strained the historically strong Pakistan-China relationship. Prime Minister Imran Khan, who took office in August 2018, received a congratulatory message from the Chinese leadership only after two months, delivered by the then Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan. Throughout the PTI government’s tenure, bilateral relations remained in a state of limbo, with minimal progress on CPEC projects.

The fallout from this period continues to linger. Even today, Pakistan-China relations have yet to regain their former momentum, and work on CPEC Phase 2 remains crippled. This impasse has raised concerns about the future of the CPEC initiative and the broader strategic partnership between the two nations.

The Chinese efforts to cultivate friendly relations with the Pakistani mainstream media and think tanks appear to have faced significant challenges. A key issue has been their choice of media partners. Instead of engaging with leading media outlets that have wide reach and influence, Chinese investments were directed towards smaller, less prominent media houses.

This strategic misstep not only alienated the top-tier media organizations but also failed to achieve the intended outcomes. As a result, a perception has developed that Chinese entities are willing to pay significant amounts to have their materials published, creating a transactional relationship that undermines credibility. Now, major media houses are reportedly reluctant to publish Chinese content without financial incentives, further complicating their media management strategy.

Similarly, China’s cooperation with Pakistani think tanks has been suboptimal. Instead of collaborating with well-established and credible institutions, they have largely engaged with lesser-known and under-resourced think tanks, often consisting of only one or two individuals. This approach has limited the ability of Chinese perspectives to reach influential intellectuals and policymakers in Pakistan.

 However, there has been a recent positive development with the establishment of a “China Corner” at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). This initiative marks a significant shift towards working with a reputable and genuine think tank, signaling a more strategic and effective approach to fostering intellectual and policy-level cooperation.

Despite all ifs and buts, China remains Pakistan’s cornerstone ally for economic prosperity and infrastructure advancement, standing firm amid challenges and uncertainties. While Pakistan must pursue a pragmatic and realistic approach to its relationship with China, ensuring mutual trust and long-term collaboration, Beijing too has a critical role to play in fostering a balanced and inclusive strategy.

China’s engagement in Pakistan should be rooted in accommodating diverse political perspectives, as the current opposition could form the future government. The strategy of selective partnerships and narrow alliances is unlikely to yield sustainable outcomes in Pakistan’s dynamic political landscape. Both nations need to strengthen this relationship with a comprehensive, inclusive, and forward-thinking approach to ensure mutual benefits and long-lasting cooperation.