Qamar Bashir
The entire nation is captivated by the tense standoff between the supreme court and constitution on one side and the government and its extension, the legislatures on the other. Though the judiciary had all the power pieces on its side of the chessboard while its opponent had none and its king was fully exposed, the judiciary showed great restraint and grace by delaying the execution of the king, giving its opponent a second chance to rearrange its pieces and, instead of an all-out bloodbath, creating a win-win situation for both sides.
While the supreme court’s order to hold elections on 14th May is still in effect and the government was to implement its order of providing Rs. 20 billion today (27th April, 2023), which it failed to do, and the entire nation was expecting Shahbaz Sharif’s sacrifice, however, the court showed grace to the prime minister and its coterie for the time being and gave them another chance to commit agreed upon election date either for the punjab assembly or the entire assemblies.
Both parties, albeit reluctantly, held negotiations upon election dates though in a tense atmosphere, which was however a welcome development that helped to calm the nation’s frayed nerves. Both parties carefully stacked their cards, revealing some while concealing others, and reaffirmed their stated positions at the outset before returning to confer with their respective leadership and agreeing to reconvene on April 28, 2023.
All stakeholders are putting as much pressure on its opponent as possible in order to gain advantage and edge. The Supreme Court stated that after hearing the parties’ concerns, it has reserved the order and will announce it when deemed appropriate. By doing so, the sharp and lethal sword of contempt of court hung directly over the heads of those in the chain of command who refused to allocate Rs. 20 billion to the election commission.
Before entering into negotiations, the PML(N) threw numerous spoilers. First, it threatened that elections would not be held unless a level playing field was created, implying an honorable and fully exonerated return of Mian Nawaz Sharif to lead the PMN(N) during the elections. The second spoiler demanded an investigation into the election 2018 and to hold accountable all those responsible for rigging and engineering including General Retired Qamar Javaid Bajwa and Lt, General Retired Faiz and their associates, Retired Justice Khosa Saheb, and Imran Khan himself. Its third spoiler was the demand that elections for all assemblies should be held on the same date .i.e. 8th October, including the Punjab assembly elections out of fear that the PTI is likely to win the punjab assembly elections with a huge margin which will guarantee their victory in the general elections, which would annihilate the PML(N) from the entire country as the PPP will remain firmly installed in Sindh and enjoy the power of the second largest province.
Due to its naivety, compulsion, or being forced by vested interests, the PML(N) became the most vulnerable victim of regime change, being blamed for the deteriorating state of the economy, hyperinflation, which has pushed 18 million more people below the poverty line and caused two million more people to lose their jobs. PMN(N) is also blamed for dismal and pitiful projected GDP growth of 0.5% compared to last year’s unprecedented and unexpected growth of 6%. This forecast is the lowest in the region, even lower than Afghanistan, which is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2022-23; all the more reason for PML(N) to buy more time to stabilize the economy, improve reserves, stimulate the economy, and reduce inflation before committing to elections.
If early elections are held, Moulana Fazal Rahman will be the biggest loser. Now that he is the leader of the PDM, he will only be relevant until elections are held, and it is written on the wall that he will lose. His heir is being trained as a minister in the Federal Cabinet and is relishing the first ever taste of protocol, luxury of being a minister, and devouring the perks and perquisites attached to it, which they fear will be lost once the elections are held, so they are pushing the government and the parliament toward a collision course to give them a few more months of luxury and comfort. However, realizing the wind’s direction, his outright rejection of any negotiation appeared to soften when PDM minus him entered into negotiation with PTI in their attempt to avert impending disaster. To remain relevant, he was forced to say that the PDM can enter into negotiations if they are brokered by the election commission. His softening of stance demonstrates unequivocally that the Supreme Court’s strategy is working.
The PPP appears to have only one agenda: to maintain their power base in Sindh and to oppose any move that could lead to the imposition of a one unit in Pakistan. Mr. Bilawal, who had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be trained in statehood under the capable and experienced guidance of Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, was the only one who seemed concerned about the imposition of one unit, which he fears will deprive them of Sindh, which they inherited from Late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto Shaheed as their fiefdom. It seems that they have already conceded defeat in Punjab and KP, so it is in their best interests to postpone the elections as long as possible to allow them to enjoy power in the federal government as much as possible.
The phony opposition led by Raja Riaz has its own vendetta. He and his associates would fight tooth and nail to postpone elections as long as possible so that they could continue to enjoy the luxury of being a member of parliament, which they fear and rightly so will lose because they are well aware of the general public’s hatred for them as being turncoats and lotas.
If the election date is announced, PDM will suffer significant losses on a number of fronts. To begin, it will prohibit the government from making major policy decisions or announcements during the run up to elections to ensure that the elections are fair and that the government does not use its power to influence the election’s outcome. Second, in order to maintain neutrality in the run-up to the elections, the government will be restricted from using public resources such as media channels or public spaces for campaign activities.Third, the government will be subjected to increased scrutiny by the media, opposition parties, and the general public. Any blunders or scandals could wreak havoc on the government’s reputation and electoral prospects. Fourth, the government’s long term planning will be disrupted by a shift in focus to the election campaign, and finally, if the government is defeated in the election, they will vacate their positions and make way for a new government.
The PTI has the most at stake and will be the ultimate and biggest winner if early elections for the Punjab assembly or all the assemblies are held on the same day. Every day is significant for PTI. For them, the current state of the economy, the threat of terrorism, and the government’s failure to control inflation are all gold and receipts to win elections. They have their own pressure cards, which they keep close to their hearts and only show when necessary. The first card was agreeing on a date for the election, whether on May 14th or in July, but guaranteed by the Supreme Court and the establishment. Second, all assemblies are disbanded, and neutral caretakers governments are established. Third, dissolve the current caretaker setups in Punjab and KP, as they have completed their mandated 90-day period and their continuation will be illegal and unconstitutional. If the election date is set and neutral governments are formed, the PTI will have complete freedom to launch an election campaign with full force, without fear of intimidation or harassment. They will benefit from increased media and public attention on political issues in order to promote their platforms and policies. During the run up to the elections, they will have an equal opportunity to campaign and access public resources such as media coverage and public spaces for campaigning. They will have the freedom to issue a rallying cry to opposition supporters, encouraging them to become more engaged and mobilized, and to increase turnout at rallies and other campaign events. Because the current government is unpopular or ineffective, the announcement of an election date will provide a boost to the PTI as disillusioned voters seek an alternative which would help the PTI gain momentum and instill confidence in their victory.
Lastly, the establishment, the elephant in the room. Once the election date is announced, the establishment will be in a difficult position, as the entire regime change, the launch of the PDM, and the ousting of Imran Khan were their idea. Keeping in mind their hostile and tense relationships with Imran Khan, the Establishment would like to delay the elections as much as possible to help the PDM improve the economy, bring inflation down, and roll out some public oriented high value projects in an attempt to win for them some political capital, while simultaneously attempting to weaken the PTI by fomenting internal strife, as they did when they split the PTI into the Jehangir, Aleem Khan and Raja Riaz factions and discredit Imran Khan to erode his political capital as much they can. But, unlike, in the past they are not going to have a free ride as all their previous weapons of discredit have been blunted by Imran Khan and rejected by the public in general. This time, they must come up with more inventive or lethal means to prevent Imran Khan’s rise to power.
The supreme court’s strategy to compel the PDM and PTI to soften their adamant positions and belligerent behavior has finally succeeded. They have agreed to meet tomorrow at 3 p.m. (28th April 2023) with the understanding that they will continue to discuss election dates within the confines of the Constitution, as mandated by the Supreme Court. It is time for them to set aside their personal egos, have compassion for the nation and its unfortunate citizens, and demonstrate the best behavior possible, which includes maintaining a high level of civility and respect for each other, approaching the process with a spirit of cooperation and compromise, avoiding demands and ultimatums, and focusing on finding common ground. To reach an agreement on the election date, both parties should be willing to make concessions and compromises, which may include adjusting the timing or duration of the election period to meet the needs of both parties. During the negotiation process, both parties should be transparent about their intentions and motivations in order to build trust and ensure that negotiations are conducted in good faith. They should agree on rules and regulations governing the conduct of the election and ensure that all parties have equal access to resources such as media channels and public spaces. They should commit to upholding the law and ensuring that all election-related activities are conducted in accordance with applicable legislation and regulations, including rules regarding campaign finance, use of public resources, and conduct during the election period, in order to ensure a free and fair electoral process that is accepted by all parties.
The writer is the Former Press Secretary to the President, Former Minister Press, Embassy of Pakistan to France, Former MD, SRBC
